Anthropic currently leads several independent benchmarks with Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 topping Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores near 63 and various Arena leaderboards, driven by strong agentic and coding performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol sits close behind at 61 on key metrics, while xAI’s August 12 Grok 4.6 post-training update tied that score at lower cost. Google’s Gemini 3.x series trails on raw capability, though Chinese models like Kimi K3 deliver near-frontier results more affordably. The race hinges on further large language model releases, benchmark shifts, and agentic improvements through year-end, with trader consensus reflecting rapid iteration across labs rather than a locked-in frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$125,904 交易量
2026-12-31
OpenAI
34%
谷歌
20%
阿里巴巴
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
9%
字节跳动
8%
Moonshot
8%
DeepSeek
8%
百度
7%
微软
6%
美团
5%
亚马逊
4%
Mistral
3%
$125,904 交易量
OpenAI
$22,572 交易量
34%
谷歌
$17,193 交易量
20%
阿里巴巴
$3,366 交易量
13%
Meta
$14,909 交易量
13%
xAI
$8,870 交易量
13%
Z.ai
$2,568 交易量
9%
字节跳动
$2,876 交易量
8%
Moonshot
$7,563 交易量
8%
DeepSeek
$20,584 交易量
8%
百度
$1,958 交易量
7%
微软
$5,165 交易量
6%
美团
$2,980 交易量
5%
亚马逊
$5,106 交易量
4%
Mistral
$10,194 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads several independent benchmarks with Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 topping Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores near 63 and various Arena leaderboards, driven by strong agentic and coding performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol sits close behind at 61 on key metrics, while xAI’s August 12 Grok 4.6 post-training update tied that score at lower cost. Google’s Gemini 3.x series trails on raw capability, though Chinese models like Kimi K3 deliver near-frontier results more affordably. The race hinges on further large language model releases, benchmark shifts, and agentic improvements through year-end, with trader consensus reflecting rapid iteration across labs rather than a locked-in frontrunner.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
交易量
$125,904结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads several independent benchmarks with Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 topping Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores near 63 and various Arena leaderboards, driven by strong agentic and coding performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol sits close behind at 61 on key metrics, while xAI’s August 12 Grok 4.6 post-training update tied that score at lower cost. Google’s Gemini 3.x series trails on raw capability, though Chinese models like Kimi K3 deliver near-frontier results more affordably. The race hinges on further large language model releases, benchmark shifts, and agentic improvements through year-end, with trader consensus reflecting rapid iteration across labs rather than a locked-in frontrunner.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$125,904结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads several independent benchmarks with Claude Opus 5 and Claude Fable 5 topping Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index scores near 63 and various Arena leaderboards, driven by strong agentic and coding performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol sits close behind at 61 on key metrics, while xAI’s August 12 Grok 4.6 post-training update tied that score at lower cost. Google’s Gemini 3.x series trails on raw capability, though Chinese models like Kimi K3 deliver near-frontier results more affordably. The race hinges on further large language model releases, benchmark shifts, and agentic improvements through year-end, with trader consensus reflecting rapid iteration across labs rather than a locked-in frontrunner.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题