Anthropic currently leads most AI benchmarks with its Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 large language models, reflecting strong recent releases and gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities that have pushed trader sentiment toward the company holding the #1 spot by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family remains competitive in enterprise integrations and knowledge tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x iterations and upcoming Gemini 4 pre-training show potential to close gaps through multimodal advances and scale. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Meta’s open-weight Muse models add pressure on price-performance, though they trail frontier closed models. Key catalysts ahead include further 2026 releases, benchmark updates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts that could alter lab momentum before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$130,626 交易量
OpenAI
28%
谷歌
17%
xAI
13%
阿里巴巴
12%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
字节跳动
8%
DeepSeek
7%
百度
7%
微软
5%
亚马逊
3%
Mistral
3%
美团
3%
$130,626 交易量
OpenAI
28%
谷歌
17%
xAI
13%
阿里巴巴
12%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
字节跳动
8%
DeepSeek
7%
百度
7%
微软
5%
亚马逊
3%
Mistral
3%
美团
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Anthropic currently leads most AI benchmarks with its Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 large language models, reflecting strong recent releases and gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities that have pushed trader sentiment toward the company holding the #1 spot by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family remains competitive in enterprise integrations and knowledge tasks, while Google’s Gemini 3.x iterations and upcoming Gemini 4 pre-training show potential to close gaps through multimodal advances and scale. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Meta’s open-weight Muse models add pressure on price-performance, though they trail frontier closed models. Key catalysts ahead include further 2026 releases, benchmark updates, and any major safety or regulatory shifts that could alter lab momentum before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于



警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题