Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$14,247 交易量
2026-12-31
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,247 交易量
$1,874 交易量
77%
OpenAI
$3,368 交易量
41%
xAI
$3,158 交易量
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 交易量
15%
Meta
$881 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$82 交易量
11%
DeepSeek
$453 交易量
10%
Microsoft
$100 交易量
10%
Alibaba
$0 交易量
9%
Moonshot
$330 交易量
9%
Baidu
$126 交易量
9%
Amazon
$86 交易量
9%
Mistral
$1,448 交易量
8%
Meituan
$1,183 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
交易量
$14,247结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$14,247结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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