The closely matched market-implied odds for OpenAI (22%), Google (20.5%), Anthropic (19.5%), and xAI (16.5%) reflect a fluid race among frontier labs building capable AI agents, where no single player has pulled ahead on benchmarks for tool use, long-horizon task completion, or coding workflows. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code, OpenAI’s Codex CLI, and xAI’s Grok Build have intensified competition, with each emphasizing distinct strengths in subagent orchestration, enterprise integration, or rapid iteration on large codebases. Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot trail at single-digit odds due to access and ecosystem gaps, while “Other” at 50% captures the possibility of an unexpected contender. Upcoming model updates and third-party agent evaluations through October remain the key swing factors for trader sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 21%
Google 21%
Anthropic 20%
SpaceXAI 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
OpenAI
21%
21%
Anthropic
20%
SpaceXAI
17%
Moonshot
12%
MiniMax
11%
DeepSeek
9%
Z.ai
7%
小米
5%
美团
5%
亚马逊
4%
字节跳动
4%
百度
4%
阿里巴巴
4%
微软
4%
Mistral
4%
英伟达
3%
Meta
10%
OpenAI 21%
Google 21%
Anthropic 20%
SpaceXAI 17%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
OpenAI
$99 交易量
21%
$106 交易量
21%
Anthropic
$207 交易量
20%
SpaceXAI
$78 交易量
17%
Moonshot
$73 交易量
12%
MiniMax
$159 交易量
11%
DeepSeek
$141 交易量
9%
Z.ai
$110 交易量
7%
小米
$73 交易量
5%
美团
$110 交易量
5%
亚马逊
$160 交易量
4%
字节跳动
$92 交易量
4%
百度
$66 交易量
4%
阿里巴巴
$73 交易量
4%
微软
$73 交易量
4%
Mistral
$110 交易量
4%
英伟达
$120 交易量
3%
Meta
$74 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds for OpenAI (22%), Google (20.5%), Anthropic (19.5%), and xAI (16.5%) reflect a fluid race among frontier labs building capable AI agents, where no single player has pulled ahead on benchmarks for tool use, long-horizon task completion, or coding workflows. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code, OpenAI’s Codex CLI, and xAI’s Grok Build have intensified competition, with each emphasizing distinct strengths in subagent orchestration, enterprise integration, or rapid iteration on large codebases. Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot trail at single-digit odds due to access and ecosystem gaps, while “Other” at 50% captures the possibility of an unexpected contender. Upcoming model updates and third-party agent evaluations through October remain the key swing factors for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
交易量
$1,923结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds for OpenAI (22%), Google (20.5%), Anthropic (19.5%), and xAI (16.5%) reflect a fluid race among frontier labs building capable AI agents, where no single player has pulled ahead on benchmarks for tool use, long-horizon task completion, or coding workflows. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code, OpenAI’s Codex CLI, and xAI’s Grok Build have intensified competition, with each emphasizing distinct strengths in subagent orchestration, enterprise integration, or rapid iteration on large codebases. Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot trail at single-digit odds due to access and ecosystem gaps, while “Other” at 50% captures the possibility of an unexpected contender. Upcoming model updates and third-party agent evaluations through October remain the key swing factors for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,923结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds for OpenAI (22%), Google (20.5%), Anthropic (19.5%), and xAI (16.5%) reflect a fluid race among frontier labs building capable AI agents, where no single player has pulled ahead on benchmarks for tool use, long-horizon task completion, or coding workflows. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Code, OpenAI’s Codex CLI, and xAI’s Grok Build have intensified competition, with each emphasizing distinct strengths in subagent orchestration, enterprise integration, or rapid iteration on large codebases. Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot trail at single-digit odds due to access and ecosystem gaps, while “Other” at 50% captures the possibility of an unexpected contender. Upcoming model updates and third-party agent evaluations through October remain the key swing factors for trader sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题