Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于在9月30日之前不发布 48%
9 月 9 日 15%
9月18日 6%
9月19日 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
在 9 月 1 日或之前
4%
9月2日
5%
9月3日
5%
9月4日
5%
9 月 5 日
5%
9 月 6 日
7%
9月7日
5%
9 月 8 日
5%
9 月 9 日
15%
9月10日
1%
9 月 11 日
5%
9月12日
5%
9月13日
5%
9月14日
7%
9月15日
7%
9月16日
5%
9月17日
5%
9月18日
6%
9月19日
6%
9 月 20 日
5%
9 月 21 日
6%
9月22日
5%
9月23日
6%
9月24日
5%
9月25日
5%
9月26日
5%
9 月 27 日
5%
9月28日
5%
9 月 29 日
5%
9 月 30 日
5%
在9月30日之前不发布
48%
在9月30日之前不发布 48%
9 月 9 日 15%
9月18日 6%
9月19日 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
在 9 月 1 日或之前
$62 交易量
4%
9月2日
$58 交易量
5%
9月3日
$58 交易量
5%
9月4日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 5 日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 6 日
$58 交易量
7%
9月7日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 8 日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 9 日
$58 交易量
15%
9月10日
$58 交易量
1%
9 月 11 日
$58 交易量
5%
9月12日
$58 交易量
5%
9月13日
$58 交易量
5%
9月14日
$58 交易量
7%
9月15日
$58 交易量
7%
9月16日
$58 交易量
5%
9月17日
$58 交易量
5%
9月18日
$58 交易量
6%
9月19日
$58 交易量
6%
9 月 20 日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 21 日
$58 交易量
6%
9月22日
$58 交易量
5%
9月23日
$58 交易量
6%
9月24日
$58 交易量
5%
9月25日
$58 交易量
5%
9月26日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 27 日
$58 交易量
5%
9月28日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 29 日
$58 交易量
5%
9 月 30 日
$58 交易量
5%
在9月30日之前不发布
$128 交易量
48%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$1,876结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,876结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's ongoing delays with Gemini 3.5 Pro, the next major Pro-tier large language model after the February 2026 release of 3.1 Pro, are the dominant driver of market sentiment. Despite May announcements positioning the model for a June rollout with advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, repeated internal performance shortfalls have kept it unavailable as of mid-August, while faster Flash variants like 3.6 and 3.7 shipped in July and August. This pattern of missed deadlines and focus on lighter models has elevated the "no release by September 30" outcome to 42% implied probability, reflecting trader views that competitive pressures and technical hurdles make a near-term Pro launch unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include any official DeepMind statements or API listings that could shift the closely watched September windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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