Google's leading 42.5% implied probability reflects its consistent Gemini releases, vast compute resources, and strong benchmark positioning that traders view as key differentiators for second place behind a presumed leader. Meta's 20% share draws from Llama open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem growth, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 17.5% and 12.5% despite Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 strengths in intelligence and agentic tasks. Recent August 2026 updates, including Grok 4.6, highlight a crowded frontier where release cadence, enterprise adoption, and safety features drive sentiment shifts ahead of the October 31 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 43%
Meta 22%
OpenAI 18%
Anthropic 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
43%
Meta
22%
OpenAI
18%
Anthropic
13%
Alibaba
8%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
2%
英伟达
1%
StepFun
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
腾讯
1%
微软
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Google 43%
Meta 22%
OpenAI 18%
Anthropic 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
$1,213 交易量
43%
Meta
$283 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$422 交易量
18%
Anthropic
$373 交易量
13%
Alibaba
$272 交易量
8%
Z.ai
$249 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$119 交易量
3%
SpaceXAI
$287 交易量
7%
DeepSeek
$107 交易量
2%
ByteDance
$259 交易量
2%
Meituan
$144 交易量
2%
英伟达
$191 交易量
1%
StepFun
$250 交易量
1%
Baidu
$219 交易量
1%
Xiaomi
$249 交易量
1%
Thinky
$319 交易量
1%
腾讯
$296 交易量
1%
微软
$301 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$278 交易量
1%
Mistral
$278 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$258 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 42.5% implied probability reflects its consistent Gemini releases, vast compute resources, and strong benchmark positioning that traders view as key differentiators for second place behind a presumed leader. Meta's 20% share draws from Llama open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem growth, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 17.5% and 12.5% despite Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 strengths in intelligence and agentic tasks. Recent August 2026 updates, including Grok 4.6, highlight a crowded frontier where release cadence, enterprise adoption, and safety features drive sentiment shifts ahead of the October 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$6,371结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's leading 42.5% implied probability reflects its consistent Gemini releases, vast compute resources, and strong benchmark positioning that traders view as key differentiators for second place behind a presumed leader. Meta's 20% share draws from Llama open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem growth, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 17.5% and 12.5% despite Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 strengths in intelligence and agentic tasks. Recent August 2026 updates, including Grok 4.6, highlight a crowded frontier where release cadence, enterprise adoption, and safety features drive sentiment shifts ahead of the October 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$6,371结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's leading 42.5% implied probability reflects its consistent Gemini releases, vast compute resources, and strong benchmark positioning that traders view as key differentiators for second place behind a presumed leader. Meta's 20% share draws from Llama open-weight momentum and developer ecosystem growth, while OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 17.5% and 12.5% despite Claude Opus 5 and GPT-5.6 strengths in intelligence and agentic tasks. Recent August 2026 updates, including Grok 4.6, highlight a crowded frontier where release cadence, enterprise adoption, and safety features drive sentiment shifts ahead of the October 31 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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