Intense competition in agentic AI frameworks and autonomous capabilities is driving the closely matched trader sentiment, with OpenAI holding a slight edge at 46.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty over second place. Recent 2026 releases such as OpenAI's Agents SDK, Anthropic's Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagents, and Microsoft Agent Framework 1.0 have highlighted differentiation in production readiness, MCP integration, and enterprise workflows, while Chinese labs including Moonshot and MiniMax gain traction through cost-effective models and open-weight approaches. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, benchmark results on tasks like SWE-bench, and any regulatory scrutiny on distillation practices, all of which could shift positioning before September resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 47%
Z.ai 27.0%
Moonshot 19.4%
Anthropic 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
OpenAI
47%
Z.ai
16%
Moonshot
19%
Anthropic
22%
Nvidia
17%
Baidu
16%
SpaceXAI
16%
11%
MiniMax
3%
Xiaomi
3%
Mistral
2%
Microsoft
2%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
12%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meituan
1%
OpenAI 47%
Z.ai 27.0%
Moonshot 19.4%
Anthropic 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
OpenAI
$2,770 交易量
47%
Z.ai
$100 交易量
16%
Moonshot
$150 交易量
19%
Anthropic
$1,044 交易量
22%
Nvidia
$124 交易量
17%
Baidu
$100 交易量
16%
SpaceXAI
$152 交易量
16%
$125 交易量
11%
MiniMax
$100 交易量
3%
Xiaomi
$1,185 交易量
3%
Mistral
$307 交易量
2%
Microsoft
$110 交易量
2%
ByteDance
$61 交易量
1%
Meta
$120 交易量
12%
Alibaba
$100 交易量
1%
Amazon
$100 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$100 交易量
1%
Meituan
$100 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition in agentic AI frameworks and autonomous capabilities is driving the closely matched trader sentiment, with OpenAI holding a slight edge at 46.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty over second place. Recent 2026 releases such as OpenAI's Agents SDK, Anthropic's Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagents, and Microsoft Agent Framework 1.0 have highlighted differentiation in production readiness, MCP integration, and enterprise workflows, while Chinese labs including Moonshot and MiniMax gain traction through cost-effective models and open-weight approaches. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, benchmark results on tasks like SWE-bench, and any regulatory scrutiny on distillation practices, all of which could shift positioning before September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
交易量
$6,848结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition in agentic AI frameworks and autonomous capabilities is driving the closely matched trader sentiment, with OpenAI holding a slight edge at 46.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty over second place. Recent 2026 releases such as OpenAI's Agents SDK, Anthropic's Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagents, and Microsoft Agent Framework 1.0 have highlighted differentiation in production readiness, MCP integration, and enterprise workflows, while Chinese labs including Moonshot and MiniMax gain traction through cost-effective models and open-weight approaches. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, benchmark results on tasks like SWE-bench, and any regulatory scrutiny on distillation practices, all of which could shift positioning before September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$6,848结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Intense competition in agentic AI frameworks and autonomous capabilities is driving the closely matched trader sentiment, with OpenAI holding a slight edge at 46.5% implied probability amid broader uncertainty over second place. Recent 2026 releases such as OpenAI's Agents SDK, Anthropic's Claude Agent SDK with deep hierarchical subagents, and Microsoft Agent Framework 1.0 have highlighted differentiation in production readiness, MCP integration, and enterprise workflows, while Chinese labs including Moonshot and MiniMax gain traction through cost-effective models and open-weight approaches. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, benchmark results on tasks like SWE-bench, and any regulatory scrutiny on distillation practices, all of which could shift positioning before September resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题