OpenAI’s dominant 76.5% implied probability reflects its recent GPT-5.6 rollout, Codex multi-agent platform, and ChatGPT Work enterprise agents that deliver stronger general-purpose reasoning and tool-use benchmarks than rivals. Traders cite OpenAI’s sandbox harness, Symphony orchestration spec, and broad third-party integrations as key edges in production agent deployments. Anthropic trails at 9% despite Claude Opus 5 and its hierarchical Agent SDK excelling in long-horizon coding tasks, while Z.ai at 14% benefits from niche momentum but lacks comparable scale or ecosystem traction. Lower odds for Google, Microsoft, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Alibaba align with narrower agent frameworks and fewer verified real-world autonomous workflows as of mid-August. With resolution days away, any last-minute benchmark gains or security disclosures could still shift the narrow gap behind OpenAI.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于OpenAI 77%
Z.ai 6.6%
Anthropic 7%
Moonshot 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
OpenAI
77%
Z.ai
7%
Anthropic
7%
Moonshot
7%
ByteDance
6%
DeepSeek
5%
Alibaba
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Xiaomi
5%
Microsoft
5%
4%
Mistral
4%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Meta
1%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
1%
OpenAI 77%
Z.ai 6.6%
Anthropic 7%
Moonshot 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
OpenAI
$1,019 交易量
77%
Z.ai
$100 交易量
7%
Anthropic
$134 交易量
7%
Moonshot
$127 交易量
7%
ByteDance
$276 交易量
6%
DeepSeek
$100 交易量
5%
Alibaba
$125 交易量
5%
SpaceXAI
$116 交易量
5%
Xiaomi
$136 交易量
5%
Microsoft
$179 交易量
5%
$60 交易量
4%
Mistral
$126 交易量
4%
MiniMax
$126 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$126 交易量
1%
Baidu
$204 交易量
1%
Meta
$97 交易量
1%
Amazon
$77 交易量
1%
Meituan
$54 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s dominant 76.5% implied probability reflects its recent GPT-5.6 rollout, Codex multi-agent platform, and ChatGPT Work enterprise agents that deliver stronger general-purpose reasoning and tool-use benchmarks than rivals. Traders cite OpenAI’s sandbox harness, Symphony orchestration spec, and broad third-party integrations as key edges in production agent deployments. Anthropic trails at 9% despite Claude Opus 5 and its hierarchical Agent SDK excelling in long-horizon coding tasks, while Z.ai at 14% benefits from niche momentum but lacks comparable scale or ecosystem traction. Lower odds for Google, Microsoft, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Alibaba align with narrower agent frameworks and fewer verified real-world autonomous workflows as of mid-August. With resolution days away, any last-minute benchmark gains or security disclosures could still shift the narrow gap behind OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$3,182结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s dominant 76.5% implied probability reflects its recent GPT-5.6 rollout, Codex multi-agent platform, and ChatGPT Work enterprise agents that deliver stronger general-purpose reasoning and tool-use benchmarks than rivals. Traders cite OpenAI’s sandbox harness, Symphony orchestration spec, and broad third-party integrations as key edges in production agent deployments. Anthropic trails at 9% despite Claude Opus 5 and its hierarchical Agent SDK excelling in long-horizon coding tasks, while Z.ai at 14% benefits from niche momentum but lacks comparable scale or ecosystem traction. Lower odds for Google, Microsoft, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Alibaba align with narrower agent frameworks and fewer verified real-world autonomous workflows as of mid-August. With resolution days away, any last-minute benchmark gains or security disclosures could still shift the narrow gap behind OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$3,182结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s dominant 76.5% implied probability reflects its recent GPT-5.6 rollout, Codex multi-agent platform, and ChatGPT Work enterprise agents that deliver stronger general-purpose reasoning and tool-use benchmarks than rivals. Traders cite OpenAI’s sandbox harness, Symphony orchestration spec, and broad third-party integrations as key edges in production agent deployments. Anthropic trails at 9% despite Claude Opus 5 and its hierarchical Agent SDK excelling in long-horizon coding tasks, while Z.ai at 14% benefits from niche momentum but lacks comparable scale or ecosystem traction. Lower odds for Google, Microsoft, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Alibaba align with narrower agent frameworks and fewer verified real-world autonomous workflows as of mid-August. With resolution days away, any last-minute benchmark gains or security disclosures could still shift the narrow gap behind OpenAI.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题