Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 50%
阿里巴巴 50%
Moonshot 50%
OpenAI 50%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
谷歌
50%
阿里巴巴
50%
Moonshot
50%
OpenAI
50%
Nvidia
50%
Anthropic
50%
Meta
50%
Z.ai
40%
百度
38%
Xiaomi
38%
SpaceXAI
38%
ByteDance
29%
Thinky
29%
DeepSeek
23%
亚马逊
23%
MiniMax
23%
Mistral
23%
Meituan
23%
Tencent
23%
StepFun
23%
Microsoft
23%
谷歌 50%
阿里巴巴 50%
Moonshot 50%
OpenAI 50%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
谷歌
$0 交易量
50%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
50%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
50%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
50%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
50%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
50%
Meta
$0 交易量
50%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
40%
百度
$0 交易量
38%
Xiaomi
$0 交易量
38%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
38%
ByteDance
$0 交易量
29%
Thinky
$0 交易量
29%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
23%
亚马逊
$0 交易量
23%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
23%
Mistral
$0 交易量
23%
Meituan
$0 交易量
23%
Tencent
$0 交易量
23%
StepFun
$0 交易量
23%
Microsoft
$0 交易量
23%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid model releases and benchmark volatility drive the tight trader consensus around 50% implied odds for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and several others on LiveBench overall by end-September 2026. GPT-5.6 and Claude Fable 5 variants currently lead recent snapshots through superior reasoning and coding scores, but frequent updates from Meta, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek create shifting margins. Competitive dynamics hinge on efficient scaling of large language models, context handling, and cost-performance tradeoffs, with no single lab holding a durable edge. Key catalysts include potential new frontier releases or evaluation refreshes before the resolution date, underscoring how quickly capabilities evolve in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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