Google's Gemini models, particularly the 3.7 Flash high variant, hold the strongest implied probability at 77.5% for second place in the Text Arena Math category by end of September, reflecting their consistent Elo scores just behind Anthropic's leading Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series. Recent leaderboard snapshots from mid-September show Anthropic occupying the top four math spots with ratings above 1522, while Google's entries cluster tightly below at competitive but secondary levels. This positioning stems from Google's iterative flash model updates emphasizing reasoning efficiency and broad benchmark gains, contrasted with slower progress from OpenAI, Meta, and Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. With resolution imminent, traders appear to weigh these stable category-specific rankings over broader overall arena trends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 78%
Anthropic 8.9%
OpenAI 7.8%
Meta 3.0%
$59,282 交易量
$59,282 交易量
2026-09-30
78%
Anthropic
9%
OpenAI
8%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 78%
Anthropic 8.9%
OpenAI 7.8%
Meta 3.0%
$59,282 交易量
$59,282 交易量
2026-09-30
$19,076 交易量
78%
Anthropic
$7,704 交易量
9%
OpenAI
$6,968 交易量
8%
Meta
$1,547 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$1,764 交易量
2%
Z.ai
$1,717 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$5,780 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,255 交易量
1%
Baidu
$1,349 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,236 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$1,472 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$1,227 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,658 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$766 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,063 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$1,044 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$951 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,228 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$566 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$910 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, particularly the 3.7 Flash high variant, hold the strongest implied probability at 77.5% for second place in the Text Arena Math category by end of September, reflecting their consistent Elo scores just behind Anthropic's leading Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series. Recent leaderboard snapshots from mid-September show Anthropic occupying the top four math spots with ratings above 1522, while Google's entries cluster tightly below at competitive but secondary levels. This positioning stems from Google's iterative flash model updates emphasizing reasoning efficiency and broad benchmark gains, contrasted with slower progress from OpenAI, Meta, and Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. With resolution imminent, traders appear to weigh these stable category-specific rankings over broader overall arena trends.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$59,282结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Gemini models, particularly the 3.7 Flash high variant, hold the strongest implied probability at 77.5% for second place in the Text Arena Math category by end of September, reflecting their consistent Elo scores just behind Anthropic's leading Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series. Recent leaderboard snapshots from mid-September show Anthropic occupying the top four math spots with ratings above 1522, while Google's entries cluster tightly below at competitive but secondary levels. This positioning stems from Google's iterative flash model updates emphasizing reasoning efficiency and broad benchmark gains, contrasted with slower progress from OpenAI, Meta, and Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. With resolution imminent, traders appear to weigh these stable category-specific rankings over broader overall arena trends.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$59,282结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETGoogle's Gemini models, particularly the 3.7 Flash high variant, hold the strongest implied probability at 77.5% for second place in the Text Arena Math category by end of September, reflecting their consistent Elo scores just behind Anthropic's leading Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 series. Recent leaderboard snapshots from mid-September show Anthropic occupying the top four math spots with ratings above 1522, while Google's entries cluster tightly below at competitive but secondary levels. This positioning stems from Google's iterative flash model updates emphasizing reasoning efficiency and broad benchmark gains, contrasted with slower progress from OpenAI, Meta, and Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. With resolution imminent, traders appear to weigh these stable category-specific rankings over broader overall arena trends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题