Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena's math category by late November, with market-implied odds clustered around 25-50% across frontrunners reflecting ongoing volatility in LLM math benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate overall text arenas through strong reasoning chains, yet Moonshot's Kimi models lead dedicated math evaluations while Google, Meta, and Alibaba push competitive gains via recent high-score releases on contaminated-free competition sets. Key swing factors include November model drops emphasizing chain-of-thought scaling, tool use in Project Euler-style tasks, and benchmark updates that could shift lab rankings by several positions. Traders weigh demonstrated capabilities in arenas like AIME and HMMT against historical slippage in release timelines, treating the 50% cluster as aggregated sentiment on narrow differentiation in frontier math performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于StepFun 41%
DeepSeek 36.4%
SpaceXAI 26%
Meta 26%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
StepFun
41%
DeepSeek
36%
SpaceXAI
26%
Meta
26%
百度
25%
谷歌
21%
Anthropic
14%
小米
14%
Moonshot
14%
Z.ai
14%
英伟达
14%
字节跳动
14%
腾讯
14%
OpenAI
13%
美团
13%
Mistral
13%
Thinky
13%
亚马逊
12%
微软
12%
阿里巴巴
4%
MiniMax
14%
StepFun 41%
DeepSeek 36.4%
SpaceXAI 26%
Meta 26%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
StepFun
$128 交易量
41%
DeepSeek
$33 交易量
36%
SpaceXAI
$33 交易量
26%
Meta
$33 交易量
26%
百度
$33 交易量
25%
谷歌
$33 交易量
21%
Anthropic
$33 交易量
14%
小米
$33 交易量
14%
Moonshot
$33 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$33 交易量
14%
英伟达
$33 交易量
14%
字节跳动
$33 交易量
14%
腾讯
$33 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$33 交易量
13%
美团
$33 交易量
13%
Mistral
$33 交易量
13%
Thinky
$33 交易量
13%
亚马逊
$54 交易量
12%
微软
$33 交易量
12%
阿里巴巴
$33 交易量
4%
MiniMax
$45 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena's math category by late November, with market-implied odds clustered around 25-50% across frontrunners reflecting ongoing volatility in LLM math benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate overall text arenas through strong reasoning chains, yet Moonshot's Kimi models lead dedicated math evaluations while Google, Meta, and Alibaba push competitive gains via recent high-score releases on contaminated-free competition sets. Key swing factors include November model drops emphasizing chain-of-thought scaling, tool use in Project Euler-style tasks, and benchmark updates that could shift lab rankings by several positions. Traders weigh demonstrated capabilities in arenas like AIME and HMMT against historical slippage in release timelines, treating the 50% cluster as aggregated sentiment on narrow differentiation in frontier math performance.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
交易量
$811结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena's math category by late November, with market-implied odds clustered around 25-50% across frontrunners reflecting ongoing volatility in LLM math benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate overall text arenas through strong reasoning chains, yet Moonshot's Kimi models lead dedicated math evaluations while Google, Meta, and Alibaba push competitive gains via recent high-score releases on contaminated-free competition sets. Key swing factors include November model drops emphasizing chain-of-thought scaling, tool use in Project Euler-style tasks, and benchmark updates that could shift lab rankings by several positions. Traders weigh demonstrated capabilities in arenas like AIME and HMMT against historical slippage in release timelines, treating the 50% cluster as aggregated sentiment on narrow differentiation in frontier math performance.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$811结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETTraders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena's math category by late November, with market-implied odds clustered around 25-50% across frontrunners reflecting ongoing volatility in LLM math benchmarks. Anthropic's Claude variants currently dominate overall text arenas through strong reasoning chains, yet Moonshot's Kimi models lead dedicated math evaluations while Google, Meta, and Alibaba push competitive gains via recent high-score releases on contaminated-free competition sets. Key swing factors include November model drops emphasizing chain-of-thought scaling, tool use in Project Euler-style tasks, and benchmark updates that could shift lab rankings by several positions. Traders weigh demonstrated capabilities in arenas like AIME and HMMT against historical slippage in release timelines, treating the 50% cluster as aggregated sentiment on narrow differentiation in frontier math performance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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