Z.ai's 63% implied probability stems from its recent large language model releases demonstrating superior performance on math reasoning benchmarks, outpacing several rivals in handling complex problem-solving and quantitative tasks. This specialized edge in AI capabilities has shifted trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution, while broader platforms from Google, Meta, and OpenAI register lower odds amid more general-purpose advancements. Many mid-tier labs and the "Other" category hover near even money due to limited public data on their latest math-specific evaluations. As the deadline nears, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could influence outcomes, though current market-implied odds reflect aggregated sentiment from traders with real capital at stake.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Z.ai 63.0%
阿里巴巴 18%
Google 12%
Meta 5.7%
$66,539 交易量
$66,539 交易量
2026-09-30
Z.ai
63%
阿里巴巴
18%
12%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
5%
Moonshot
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
小米
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Anthropic
<1%
百度
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
英伟达
<1%
美团
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
腾讯
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai 63.0%
阿里巴巴 18%
Google 12%
Meta 5.7%
$66,539 交易量
$66,539 交易量
2026-09-30
Z.ai
$7,751 交易量
63%
阿里巴巴
$14,096 交易量
18%
$7,963 交易量
12%
Meta
$2,007 交易量
6%
OpenAI
$9,945 交易量
5%
Moonshot
$3,024 交易量
5%
SpaceXAI
$2,002 交易量
1%
小米
$1,803 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$1,535 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$2,649 交易量
1%
Anthropic
$2,720 交易量
<1%
百度
$2,642 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,569 交易量
<1%
微软
$1,560 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$743 交易量
<1%
美团
$756 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$575 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$916 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$1,586 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$698 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai's 63% implied probability stems from its recent large language model releases demonstrating superior performance on math reasoning benchmarks, outpacing several rivals in handling complex problem-solving and quantitative tasks. This specialized edge in AI capabilities has shifted trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution, while broader platforms from Google, Meta, and OpenAI register lower odds amid more general-purpose advancements. Many mid-tier labs and the "Other" category hover near even money due to limited public data on their latest math-specific evaluations. As the deadline nears, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could influence outcomes, though current market-implied odds reflect aggregated sentiment from traders with real capital at stake.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
交易量
$66,539结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Z.ai's 63% implied probability stems from its recent large language model releases demonstrating superior performance on math reasoning benchmarks, outpacing several rivals in handling complex problem-solving and quantitative tasks. This specialized edge in AI capabilities has shifted trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution, while broader platforms from Google, Meta, and OpenAI register lower odds amid more general-purpose advancements. Many mid-tier labs and the "Other" category hover near even money due to limited public data on their latest math-specific evaluations. As the deadline nears, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could influence outcomes, though current market-implied odds reflect aggregated sentiment from traders with real capital at stake.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$66,539结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:55 PM ETZ.ai's 63% implied probability stems from its recent large language model releases demonstrating superior performance on math reasoning benchmarks, outpacing several rivals in handling complex problem-solving and quantitative tasks. This specialized edge in AI capabilities has shifted trader consensus ahead of the September 30 resolution, while broader platforms from Google, Meta, and OpenAI register lower odds amid more general-purpose advancements. Many mid-tier labs and the "Other" category hover near even money due to limited public data on their latest math-specific evaluations. As the deadline nears, any final benchmark updates or capability demonstrations could influence outcomes, though current market-implied odds reflect aggregated sentiment from traders with real capital at stake.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题