Recent reports from both labs highlight accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, driving trader focus on whether either will soon claim a milestone announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” post detailed Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged production code—up from low single digits in 2025—while speeding internal workflows eightfold, though it stressed full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. OpenAI’s September 2026 research-acceleration update described an equivalent “automated AI intern” already in use, with a fully automated researcher targeted for March 2028, alongside internal RSI benchmarks. Executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki in mid-September have reinforced calls for voluntary slowdowns, underscoring competitive pressure and safety concerns that could prompt or delay public claims of recursive self-improvement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-10-31
2026年10月31日
6%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
6%
$1,313 交易量
2026年10月31日
$684 交易量
6%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
$629 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports from both labs highlight accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, driving trader focus on whether either will soon claim a milestone announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” post detailed Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged production code—up from low single digits in 2025—while speeding internal workflows eightfold, though it stressed full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. OpenAI’s September 2026 research-acceleration update described an equivalent “automated AI intern” already in use, with a fully automated researcher targeted for March 2028, alongside internal RSI benchmarks. Executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki in mid-September have reinforced calls for voluntary slowdowns, underscoring competitive pressure and safety concerns that could prompt or delay public claims of recursive self-improvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
交易量
$1,313结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent reports from both labs highlight accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, driving trader focus on whether either will soon claim a milestone announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” post detailed Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged production code—up from low single digits in 2025—while speeding internal workflows eightfold, though it stressed full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. OpenAI’s September 2026 research-acceleration update described an equivalent “automated AI intern” already in use, with a fully automated researcher targeted for March 2028, alongside internal RSI benchmarks. Executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki in mid-September have reinforced calls for voluntary slowdowns, underscoring competitive pressure and safety concerns that could prompt or delay public claims of recursive self-improvement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,313结束日期
2028-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETRecent reports from both labs highlight accelerating AI involvement in their own development pipelines, driving trader focus on whether either will soon claim a milestone announcement. Anthropic’s June 2026 “When AI Builds Itself” post detailed Claude authoring over 80 percent of merged production code—up from low single digits in 2025—while speeding internal workflows eightfold, though it stressed full autonomous successor design remains unachieved. OpenAI’s September 2026 research-acceleration update described an equivalent “automated AI intern” already in use, with a fully automated researcher targeted for March 2028, alongside internal RSI benchmarks. Executive statements from Dario Amodei and Jakub Pachocki in mid-September have reinforced calls for voluntary slowdowns, underscoring competitive pressure and safety concerns that could prompt or delay public claims of recursive self-improvement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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