Recent model releases have fragmented trader views on the second-best AI lab heading into late November 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants currently top several leaderboards with strong agentic and coding performance, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra delivers competitive long-context and cybersecurity results shortly after launch. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations add pressure through speed and integration advantages, yet Chinese labs such as Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue closing capability gaps at lower cost, boosting their implied odds. With no dominant runner-up and benchmarks evolving quickly, market-implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over which lab’s next capability jump or efficiency gain will consolidate second place before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 47%
谷歌 30%
DeepSeek 30%
Meta 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
47%
谷歌
30%
DeepSeek
30%
Meta
22%
StepFun
19%
百度
19%
微软
18%
亚马逊
16%
Mistral
16%
MiniMax
15%
小米
12%
Anthropic
12%
OpenAI
12%
美团
11%
Z.ai
9%
字节跳动
9%
阿里巴巴
8%
SpaceXAI
8%
英伟达
7%
Thinky
7%
腾讯
7%
Moonshot 47%
谷歌 30%
DeepSeek 30%
Meta 22%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
Moonshot
$60 交易量
47%
谷歌
$80 交易量
30%
DeepSeek
$49 交易量
30%
Meta
$80 交易量
22%
StepFun
$49 交易量
19%
百度
$60 交易量
19%
微软
$49 交易量
18%
亚马逊
$49 交易量
16%
Mistral
$49 交易量
16%
MiniMax
$60 交易量
15%
小米
$60 交易量
12%
Anthropic
$55 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$60 交易量
12%
美团
$60 交易量
11%
Z.ai
$60 交易量
9%
字节跳动
$60 交易量
9%
阿里巴巴
$60 交易量
8%
SpaceXAI
$60 交易量
8%
英伟达
$60 交易量
7%
Thinky
$60 交易量
7%
腾讯
$60 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader views on the second-best AI lab heading into late November 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants currently top several leaderboards with strong agentic and coding performance, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra delivers competitive long-context and cybersecurity results shortly after launch. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations add pressure through speed and integration advantages, yet Chinese labs such as Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue closing capability gaps at lower cost, boosting their implied odds. With no dominant runner-up and benchmarks evolving quickly, market-implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over which lab’s next capability jump or efficiency gain will consolidate second place before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,244结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader views on the second-best AI lab heading into late November 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants currently top several leaderboards with strong agentic and coding performance, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra delivers competitive long-context and cybersecurity results shortly after launch. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations add pressure through speed and integration advantages, yet Chinese labs such as Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue closing capability gaps at lower cost, boosting their implied odds. With no dominant runner-up and benchmarks evolving quickly, market-implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over which lab’s next capability jump or efficiency gain will consolidate second place before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,244结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETRecent model releases have fragmented trader views on the second-best AI lab heading into late November 2026. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants currently top several leaderboards with strong agentic and coding performance, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra delivers competitive long-context and cybersecurity results shortly after launch. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and Meta’s Muse Spark iterations add pressure through speed and integration advantages, yet Chinese labs such as Moonshot, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue closing capability gaps at lower cost, boosting their implied odds. With no dominant runner-up and benchmarks evolving quickly, market-implied probabilities reflect uncertainty over which lab’s next capability jump or efficiency gain will consolidate second place before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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