Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration cycle, with Opus 5 launching July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, continues to shape trader expectations for the next flagship release. Recent leaks and routing reports point to potential Opus 5.2 testing, with prediction markets pricing an 81% chance of a launch in the week of September 24 and strong consensus on a September resolution overall. The company’s pattern of frequent upgrades—driven by competition from OpenAI’s GPT line, Google Gemini, and Meta models—combined with the early-September debut of Fable 5.1, supports the view of an imminent Opus refresh focused on coding, agentic workflows, and cost-performance gains. No official announcement or model card has appeared yet, leaving room for last-minute delays or surprise timing amid ongoing safety and capability refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$152,999 交易量
2026-09-17
9月17日
1%
9月20日
4%
9月24日
56%
9月27日
71%
9月30日
81%
10月31日
98%
12月31日
98%
$152,999 交易量
9月17日
$10,580 交易量
1%
9月20日
$6,373 交易量
4%
9月24日
$4,415 交易量
56%
9月27日
$3,563 交易量
71%
9月30日
$67,802 交易量
81%
10月31日
$13,548 交易量
98%
12月31日
$5,203 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration cycle, with Opus 5 launching July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, continues to shape trader expectations for the next flagship release. Recent leaks and routing reports point to potential Opus 5.2 testing, with prediction markets pricing an 81% chance of a launch in the week of September 24 and strong consensus on a September resolution overall. The company’s pattern of frequent upgrades—driven by competition from OpenAI’s GPT line, Google Gemini, and Meta models—combined with the early-September debut of Fable 5.1, supports the view of an imminent Opus refresh focused on coding, agentic workflows, and cost-performance gains. No official announcement or model card has appeared yet, leaving room for last-minute delays or surprise timing amid ongoing safety and capability refinements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$152,999结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 2:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s rapid Opus iteration cycle, with Opus 5 launching July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, continues to shape trader expectations for the next flagship release. Recent leaks and routing reports point to potential Opus 5.2 testing, with prediction markets pricing an 81% chance of a launch in the week of September 24 and strong consensus on a September resolution overall. The company’s pattern of frequent upgrades—driven by competition from OpenAI’s GPT line, Google Gemini, and Meta models—combined with the early-September debut of Fable 5.1, supports the view of an imminent Opus refresh focused on coding, agentic workflows, and cost-performance gains. No official announcement or model card has appeared yet, leaving room for last-minute delays or surprise timing amid ongoing safety and capability refinements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$152,999结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 2:12 PM ETAnthropic’s rapid Opus iteration cycle, with Opus 5 launching July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May, continues to shape trader expectations for the next flagship release. Recent leaks and routing reports point to potential Opus 5.2 testing, with prediction markets pricing an 81% chance of a launch in the week of September 24 and strong consensus on a September resolution overall. The company’s pattern of frequent upgrades—driven by competition from OpenAI’s GPT line, Google Gemini, and Meta models—combined with the early-September debut of Fable 5.1, supports the view of an imminent Opus refresh focused on coding, agentic workflows, and cost-performance gains. No official announcement or model card has appeared yet, leaving room for last-minute delays or surprise timing amid ongoing safety and capability refinements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题