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icon for Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?

Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?

icon for Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?

Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?

6% 概率
Polymarket
最新

6% 概率
Polymarket
最新
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Sam Altman has publicly endorsed the core ideas behind pacing frontier AI development and committed OpenAI to measures like independent evaluators with employee-like access, yet he has not signed the employee-driven "Pacing the Frontier" statement since its July 2026 launch.** The document, which has attracted over 1,300 verified signatories from labs including OpenAI staff, requests U.S. government-backed international tools for coordinated slowdowns if automated AI research outpaces control. Altman’s September 2026 remarks on X and in interviews stress that “pacing” means deliberate but continued progress with safety costs, while avoiding direct personal endorsement of the statement itself. With the September 30 deadline just days away and no reported shift toward signing, trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the consistent separation between his corporate positions and this specific employee petition. A last-minute personal signature remains possible if internal or industry pressure mounts, though recent patterns suggest limited likelihood.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,005
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Sam Altman has publicly endorsed the core ideas behind pacing frontier AI development and committed OpenAI to measures like independent evaluators with employee-like access, yet he has not signed the employee-driven "Pacing the Frontier" statement since its July 2026 launch.** The document, which has attracted over 1,300 verified signatories from labs including OpenAI staff, requests U.S. government-backed international tools for coordinated slowdowns if automated AI research outpaces control. Altman’s September 2026 remarks on X and in interviews stress that “pacing” means deliberate but continued progress with safety costs, while avoiding direct personal endorsement of the statement itself. With the September 30 deadline just days away and no reported shift toward signing, trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the consistent separation between his corporate positions and this specific employee petition. A last-minute personal signature remains possible if internal or industry pressure mounts, though recent patterns suggest limited likelihood.

In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,005
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"萨姆·奥特曼会在9月30日前签署《Pacing the Frontier》声明吗?",概率为 6%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 6¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 6%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Sep 14, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?"的当前领先者是"萨姆·奥特曼会在9月30日前签署《Pacing the Frontier》声明吗?",仅有 6%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"Sam Altman在9月30日之前签署了Pacing the Frontier声明?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。