Skip to main content

如需在美国交易，请访问 polymarket.us

icon for 哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？
科技·AI

哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？

icon for 哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？
科技·AI

哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？

10月 1

11月 1

12月 1

1月 1, 2027

10月 1

11月 1

12月 1

1月 1, 2027

Anthropic 98.8%

OpenAI <1%

谷歌 <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,722,914 交易量

Anthropic 98.8%

OpenAI <1%

谷歌 <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,722,914 交易量

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$839,028 交易量

99%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$698,346 交易量

1%

icon for 谷歌

谷歌

$334,043 交易量

1%

icon for Meta

Meta

$417,192 交易量

<1%

icon for 阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴

$179,449 交易量

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$83,811 交易量

<1%

icon for 百度

百度

$65,015 交易量

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$139,721 交易量

<1%

icon for 小米

小米

$34,848 交易量

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$348,820 交易量

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$182,177 交易量

<1%

icon for 亚马逊

亚马逊

$28,749 交易量

<1%

icon for 字节跳动

字节跳动

$88,965 交易量

<1%

icon for 英伟达

英伟达

$39,539 交易量

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$15,148 交易量

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$34,406 交易量

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$36,341 交易量

<1%

icon for 美团

美团

$19,597 交易量

<1%

icon for 腾讯

腾讯

$71,085 交易量

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$22,501 交易量

<1%

icon for 微软

微软

$44,694 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads major independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.58 with supported evidence, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, while multiple Anthropic models occupy the top ranks across agentic, coding, and reasoning categories. This sustained frontier performance, reinforced by recent releases like Claude Sonnet 5 and Opus 5, underpins the market's near-certain consensus that Anthropic holds the best model by end of September. Traders weigh the short resolution window against the low likelihood of a disruptive competitor announcement or benchmark reversal in the next week, though a surprise model update from OpenAI or Google could still shift relative standings.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$3,722,914
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

结算来源

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

结算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads major independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 at 84.58 with supported evidence, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra, while multiple Anthropic models occupy the top ranks across agentic, coding, and reasoning categories. This sustained frontier performance, reinforced by recent releases like Claude Sonnet 5 and Opus 5, underpins the market's near-certain consensus that Anthropic holds the best model by end of September. Traders weigh the short resolution window against the low likelihood of a disruptive competitor announcement or benchmark reversal in the next week, though a surprise model update from OpenAI or Google could still shift relative standings.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$3,722,914
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

结算来源

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

结算方

0x69c47De9D...

相关

icon for Anthropic会在2026年9月底拥有排名第一的AI模型吗？

Anthropic会在2026年9月底拥有排名第一的AI模型吗？

97%
是
icon for Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

94%
icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

89%

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 21 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Anthropic"，概率为 99%，其次是"OpenAI"，概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 99¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 99%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？"已产生 $3.7 million 的总交易量（自Jul 20, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 21 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？"的当前领先者是"Anthropic"，概率为 99%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 99%。紧随其后的结果是"OpenAI"，概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哪家公司在9月底拥有最好的人工智能模型？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。