Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 86%
Google 5.2%
OpenAI 5.0%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
86%
5%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.2%
OpenAI 5.0%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$4,876 交易量
86%
$190 交易量
5%
OpenAI
$207 交易量
5%
SpaceXAI
$315 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$264 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$211 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$219 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$202 交易量
1%
Meta
$207 交易量
1%
Meituan
$232 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$224 交易量
1%
Amazon
$208 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$187 交易量
1%
Thinky
$181 交易量
1%
Mistral
$201 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$214 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$234 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$214 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$229 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$214 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$202 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$9,231结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$9,231结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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