Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 50%
Nvidia 50%
Meta 48%
Moonshot 48%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
50%
Nvidia
50%
Meta
48%
Moonshot
48%
Baidu
48%
Alibaba
45%
OpenAI
43%
SpaceXAI
43%
Anthropic
41%
Z.ai
41%
Xiaomi
41%
DeepSeek
24%
ByteDance
24%
MiniMax
24%
Thinky
24%
Meituan
24%
Mistral
24%
Amazon
24%
Tencent
24%
StepFun
24%
Microsoft
24%
Google 50%
Nvidia 50%
Meta 48%
Moonshot 48%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
$0 交易量
50%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
50%
Meta
$0 交易量
48%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
48%
Baidu
$0 交易量
48%
Alibaba
$0 交易量
45%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
43%
Anthropic
$0 交易量
41%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
41%
Xiaomi
$0 交易量
41%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
24%
ByteDance
$0 交易量
24%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
24%
Thinky
$0 交易量
24%
Meituan
$0 交易量
24%
Mistral
$0 交易量
24%
Amazon
$0 交易量
24%
Tencent
$0 交易量
24%
StepFun
$0 交易量
24%
Microsoft
$0 交易量
24%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETMeta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题