The closely matched trader consensus around Moonshot and OpenAI at roughly 30% each for third-best AI agent lab by end-September reflects their comparable momentum in agentic systems built on large language models. Moonshot's recent Chinese-market gains and OpenAI's iterative releases of tool-using agents have narrowed the gap with established players, while Anthropic's lower odds stem from a more conservative release cadence focused on safety-aligned capabilities. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated benchmarks in multi-step reasoning and real-world task completion rather than raw model size. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences and capability updates that could shift platform adoption and ecosystem positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 33.1%
OpenAI 23%
Anthropic 14%
Z.ai 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Moonshot
33%
OpenAI
23%
Anthropic
14%
Z.ai
14%
SpaceXAI
4%
Meta
4%
字节跳动
3%
英伟达
3%
Alibaba
3%
MiniMax
3%
3%
百度
3%
美团
3%
小米
3%
Mistral
3%
微软
3%
亚马逊
3%
DeepSeek
6%
Moonshot 33.1%
OpenAI 23%
Anthropic 14%
Z.ai 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
Moonshot
$269 交易量
33%
OpenAI
$520 交易量
23%
Anthropic
$1,804 交易量
14%
Z.ai
$1,211 交易量
14%
SpaceXAI
$20 交易量
4%
Meta
$20 交易量
4%
字节跳动
$60 交易量
3%
英伟达
$20 交易量
3%
Alibaba
$34 交易量
3%
MiniMax
$20 交易量
3%
$20 交易量
3%
百度
$54 交易量
3%
美团
$20 交易量
3%
小米
$25 交易量
3%
Mistral
$72 交易量
3%
微软
$20 交易量
3%
亚马逊
$33 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$69 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched trader consensus around Moonshot and OpenAI at roughly 30% each for third-best AI agent lab by end-September reflects their comparable momentum in agentic systems built on large language models. Moonshot's recent Chinese-market gains and OpenAI's iterative releases of tool-using agents have narrowed the gap with established players, while Anthropic's lower odds stem from a more conservative release cadence focused on safety-aligned capabilities. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated benchmarks in multi-step reasoning and real-world task completion rather than raw model size. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences and capability updates that could shift platform adoption and ecosystem positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
交易量
$4,292结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched trader consensus around Moonshot and OpenAI at roughly 30% each for third-best AI agent lab by end-September reflects their comparable momentum in agentic systems built on large language models. Moonshot's recent Chinese-market gains and OpenAI's iterative releases of tool-using agents have narrowed the gap with established players, while Anthropic's lower odds stem from a more conservative release cadence focused on safety-aligned capabilities. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated benchmarks in multi-step reasoning and real-world task completion rather than raw model size. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences and capability updates that could shift platform adoption and ecosystem positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$4,292结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched trader consensus around Moonshot and OpenAI at roughly 30% each for third-best AI agent lab by end-September reflects their comparable momentum in agentic systems built on large language models. Moonshot's recent Chinese-market gains and OpenAI's iterative releases of tool-using agents have narrowed the gap with established players, while Anthropic's lower odds stem from a more conservative release cadence focused on safety-aligned capabilities. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated benchmarks in multi-step reasoning and real-world task completion rather than raw model size. Key upcoming catalysts include potential developer conferences and capability updates that could shift platform adoption and ecosystem positioning before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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