The closely contested Polymarket odds around 50% for multiple AI labs, with Moonshot at 41.5% and lower figures for established players like OpenAI and Anthropic, reflect intense competition in autonomous agent development. Trader sentiment hinges on recent model releases, benchmark performance in multi-step reasoning tasks, and demonstrated capabilities in real-world tool use and long-horizon planning. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and partnerships that could shift relative positioning before October. The market captures aggregated trader views on how quickly labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, or xAI can close gaps with leaders through specialized agent frameworks, while noting that rapid iteration and regulatory scrutiny add uncertainty to any ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 42%
SpaceXAI 11.9%
Google 7.1%
Z.ai 7.0%
$22,535 交易量
$22,535 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
42%
SpaceXAI
12%
7%
Z.ai
7%
OpenAI
6%
小米
5%
阿里巴巴
5%
DeepSeek
4%
微软
4%
Anthropic
4%
字节跳动
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
英伟达
1%
百度
1%
亚马逊
1%
Mistral
1%
美团
1%
Moonshot 42%
SpaceXAI 11.9%
Google 7.1%
Z.ai 7.0%
$22,535 交易量
$22,535 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
$9,984 交易量
42%
SpaceXAI
$2,284 交易量
12%
$295 交易量
7%
Z.ai
$454 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$5,002 交易量
6%
小米
$262 交易量
5%
阿里巴巴
$659 交易量
5%
DeepSeek
$337 交易量
4%
微软
$252 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$1,019 交易量
4%
字节跳动
$473 交易量
1%
Meta
$229 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$224 交易量
1%
英伟达
$184 交易量
1%
百度
$224 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$201 交易量
1%
Mistral
$229 交易量
1%
美团
$224 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely contested Polymarket odds around 50% for multiple AI labs, with Moonshot at 41.5% and lower figures for established players like OpenAI and Anthropic, reflect intense competition in autonomous agent development. Trader sentiment hinges on recent model releases, benchmark performance in multi-step reasoning tasks, and demonstrated capabilities in real-world tool use and long-horizon planning. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and partnerships that could shift relative positioning before October. The market captures aggregated trader views on how quickly labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, or xAI can close gaps with leaders through specialized agent frameworks, while noting that rapid iteration and regulatory scrutiny add uncertainty to any ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$22,535结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely contested Polymarket odds around 50% for multiple AI labs, with Moonshot at 41.5% and lower figures for established players like OpenAI and Anthropic, reflect intense competition in autonomous agent development. Trader sentiment hinges on recent model releases, benchmark performance in multi-step reasoning tasks, and demonstrated capabilities in real-world tool use and long-horizon planning. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and partnerships that could shift relative positioning before October. The market captures aggregated trader views on how quickly labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, or xAI can close gaps with leaders through specialized agent frameworks, while noting that rapid iteration and regulatory scrutiny add uncertainty to any ranking.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$22,535结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThe closely contested Polymarket odds around 50% for multiple AI labs, with Moonshot at 41.5% and lower figures for established players like OpenAI and Anthropic, reflect intense competition in autonomous agent development. Trader sentiment hinges on recent model releases, benchmark performance in multi-step reasoning tasks, and demonstrated capabilities in real-world tool use and long-horizon planning. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, safety evaluations, and partnerships that could shift relative positioning before October. The market captures aggregated trader views on how quickly labs like Moonshot, DeepSeek, or xAI can close gaps with leaders through specialized agent frameworks, while noting that rapid iteration and regulatory scrutiny add uncertainty to any ranking.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题