Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Moonshot 49%
MiniMax 26%
Alibaba 25%
Mistral 22%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Moonshot
59%
MiniMax
26%
Alibaba
25%
Mistral
22%
Baidu
19%
ByteDance
19%
Xiaomi
18%
16%
DeepSeek
12%
Anthropic
11%
OpenAI
8%
Z.ai
8%
SpaceXAI
6%
Meta
3%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Nvidia
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Moonshot 49%
MiniMax 26%
Alibaba 25%
Mistral 22%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Moonshot
$279 交易量
59%
MiniMax
$170 交易量
26%
Alibaba
$122 交易量
25%
Mistral
$133 交易量
22%
Baidu
$181 交易量
19%
ByteDance
$131 交易量
19%
Xiaomi
$166 交易量
18%
$60 交易量
16%
DeepSeek
$20 交易量
12%
Anthropic
$211 交易量
11%
OpenAI
$140 交易量
8%
Z.ai
$308 交易量
8%
SpaceXAI
$118 交易量
6%
Meta
$117 交易量
3%
Amazon
$175 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$155 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$152 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$74 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$2,712结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$2,712结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have positioned Moonshot as the clear frontrunner for third-best AI agent lab by end of August at 58% implied probability, driven by its demonstrated progress in autonomous agent workflows and specialized model releases. A tight cluster of Chinese labs including MiniMax, Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek sits in the low-to-mid 20s, underscoring intense regional competition in scalable agent architectures and developer ecosystem strength. Western leaders such as Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic register notably lower odds, reflecting trader views on slower agent-specific iteration compared to focused players. The broad 50% band across multiple unnamed contenders highlights unresolved uncertainty in capability benchmarks, with resolution hinging on any late-August announcements or third-party evaluations before month-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题