Anthropic holds a modest edge in this LiveBench market at 54% implied probability due to its rapid June-July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5, which have posted leading scores on coding and reasoning subtasks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 and Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash sit close behind, creating a tight contest where any new model drop or benchmark refresh before August 31 could shift the leaderboard. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s recent gains in high-effort reasoning modes while noting the fluid competitive landscape—product updates, safety routing changes, and independent evaluations frequently reorder top positions on LiveBench. Upcoming developer conferences and potential August model iterations remain key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 55%
OpenAI 50%
Moonshot 48%
Baidu 43%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
55%
OpenAI
50%
Moonshot
48%
Baidu
43%
Z.ai
43%
40%
Alibaba
40%
Xiaomi
38%
Meta
34%
SpaceXAI
33%
DeepSeek
33%
Amazon
33%
ByteDance
33%
Nvidia
33%
Thinky
23%
MiniMax
23%
Mistral
18%
Meituan
18%
Tencent
18%
StepFun
18%
Microsoft
18%
Anthropic 55%
OpenAI 50%
Moonshot 48%
Baidu 43%
最新
最新
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$0 交易量
55%
OpenAI
$0 交易量
50%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
48%
Baidu
$0 交易量
43%
Z.ai
$0 交易量
43%
$0 交易量
40%
Alibaba
$0 交易量
40%
Xiaomi
$0 交易量
38%
Meta
$0 交易量
34%
SpaceXAI
$0 交易量
33%
DeepSeek
$0 交易量
33%
Amazon
$0 交易量
33%
ByteDance
$0 交易量
33%
Nvidia
$0 交易量
33%
Thinky
$0 交易量
23%
MiniMax
$0 交易量
23%
Mistral
$0 交易量
18%
Meituan
$0 交易量
18%
Tencent
$0 交易量
18%
StepFun
$0 交易量
18%
Microsoft
$0 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a modest edge in this LiveBench market at 54% implied probability due to its rapid June-July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5, which have posted leading scores on coding and reasoning subtasks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 and Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash sit close behind, creating a tight contest where any new model drop or benchmark refresh before August 31 could shift the leaderboard. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s recent gains in high-effort reasoning modes while noting the fluid competitive landscape—product updates, safety routing changes, and independent evaluations frequently reorder top positions on LiveBench. Upcoming developer conferences and potential August model iterations remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds a modest edge in this LiveBench market at 54% implied probability due to its rapid June-July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5, which have posted leading scores on coding and reasoning subtasks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 and Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash sit close behind, creating a tight contest where any new model drop or benchmark refresh before August 31 could shift the leaderboard. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s recent gains in high-effort reasoning modes while noting the fluid competitive landscape—product updates, safety routing changes, and independent evaluations frequently reorder top positions on LiveBench. Upcoming developer conferences and potential August model iterations remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a modest edge in this LiveBench market at 54% implied probability due to its rapid June-July 2026 releases of Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5, which have posted leading scores on coding and reasoning subtasks. OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 and Google’s Gemini 3.5 Flash sit close behind, creating a tight contest where any new model drop or benchmark refresh before August 31 could shift the leaderboard. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s recent gains in high-effort reasoning modes while noting the fluid competitive landscape—product updates, safety routing changes, and independent evaluations frequently reorder top positions on LiveBench. Upcoming developer conferences and potential August model iterations remain key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题