Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-max releases and strong Code Arena WebDev leaderboard results—sitting at fourth overall with scores near 1681, just behind Anthropic’s third-place model—drive its 54.5% implied probability for third-best lab by September 30. Chinese labs have narrowed the frontier gap in agentic frontend coding through cost-efficient, high-context models that excel at multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Z.ai’s GLM variants also cluster in the top tier, creating a tight contest among non-U.S. players, while OpenAI and Anthropic dominate the top two spots. Traders weigh these verified September 2026 updates against potential last-minute leaderboard shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿里巴巴 53%
SpaceXAI 26.4%
Moonshot 12%
OpenAI 3.1%
$42,864 交易量
$42,864 交易量
2026-09-30
阿里巴巴
53%
SpaceXAI
26%
Moonshot
12%
OpenAI
3%
Z.ai
2%
DeepSeek
1%
1%
字节跳动
1%
MiniMax
1%
Anthropic
1%
小米
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Meta
<1%
腾讯
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Thinky
<1%
阿里巴巴 53%
SpaceXAI 26.4%
Moonshot 12%
OpenAI 3.1%
$42,864 交易量
$42,864 交易量
2026-09-30
阿里巴巴
$13,811 交易量
53%
SpaceXAI
$2,328 交易量
26%
Moonshot
$10,411 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$2,093 交易量
3%
Z.ai
$1,188 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$1,146 交易量
1%
$1,230 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$977 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$474 交易量
1%
Anthropic
$3,604 交易量
1%
小米
$995 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$900 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,161 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$915 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$684 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$947 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-max releases and strong Code Arena WebDev leaderboard results—sitting at fourth overall with scores near 1681, just behind Anthropic’s third-place model—drive its 54.5% implied probability for third-best lab by September 30. Chinese labs have narrowed the frontier gap in agentic frontend coding through cost-efficient, high-context models that excel at multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Z.ai’s GLM variants also cluster in the top tier, creating a tight contest among non-U.S. players, while OpenAI and Anthropic dominate the top two spots. Traders weigh these verified September 2026 updates against potential last-minute leaderboard shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
交易量
$42,864结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:46 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-max releases and strong Code Arena WebDev leaderboard results—sitting at fourth overall with scores near 1681, just behind Anthropic’s third-place model—drive its 54.5% implied probability for third-best lab by September 30. Chinese labs have narrowed the frontier gap in agentic frontend coding through cost-efficient, high-context models that excel at multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Z.ai’s GLM variants also cluster in the top tier, creating a tight contest among non-U.S. players, while OpenAI and Anthropic dominate the top two spots. Traders weigh these verified September 2026 updates against potential last-minute leaderboard shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$42,864结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 7:46 PM ETAlibaba’s recent Qwen3.8-max releases and strong Code Arena WebDev leaderboard results—sitting at fourth overall with scores near 1681, just behind Anthropic’s third-place model—drive its 54.5% implied probability for third-best lab by September 30. Chinese labs have narrowed the frontier gap in agentic frontend coding through cost-efficient, high-context models that excel at multi-step HTML/React and tool-use tasks. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Z.ai’s GLM variants also cluster in the top tier, creating a tight contest among non-U.S. players, while OpenAI and Anthropic dominate the top two spots. Traders weigh these verified September 2026 updates against potential last-minute leaderboard shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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