Anthropic’s recent releases of detailed R&D automation metrics, commerce agent blueprints, and leadership on agent-specific benchmarks such as Agent Arena have driven the 92% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI agent by end of September. Traders cite Claude models’ superior long-horizon instruction following, tool-use reliability, and internal deployment of thousands of agents as key differentiators over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail significantly in current evaluations. A surprise high-performing model launch or leaderboard shift in the final week remains the main scenario that could narrow this consensus before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.2%
微软 <1%
谷歌 <1%
$223,979 交易量
$223,979 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
6%
微软
<1%
谷歌
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
小米
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
百度
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美团
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 6.2%
微软 <1%
谷歌 <1%
$223,979 交易量
$223,979 交易量
2026-09-30
Anthropic
$57,522 交易量
92%
OpenAI
$44,328 交易量
6%
微软
$9,214 交易量
<1%
谷歌
$9,251 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$7,614 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$9,159 交易量
<1%
Meta
$9,311 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$7,938 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$8,766 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$7,494 交易量
<1%
小米
$539 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$7,551 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,730 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$7,427 交易量
<1%
百度
$7,554 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$7,543 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$7,538 交易量
<1%
美团
$7,498 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of detailed R&D automation metrics, commerce agent blueprints, and leadership on agent-specific benchmarks such as Agent Arena have driven the 92% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI agent by end of September. Traders cite Claude models’ superior long-horizon instruction following, tool-use reliability, and internal deployment of thousands of agents as key differentiators over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail significantly in current evaluations. A surprise high-performing model launch or leaderboard shift in the final week remains the main scenario that could narrow this consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
交易量
$223,979结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s recent releases of detailed R&D automation metrics, commerce agent blueprints, and leadership on agent-specific benchmarks such as Agent Arena have driven the 92% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI agent by end of September. Traders cite Claude models’ superior long-horizon instruction following, tool-use reliability, and internal deployment of thousands of agents as key differentiators over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail significantly in current evaluations. A surprise high-performing model launch or leaderboard shift in the final week remains the main scenario that could narrow this consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$223,979结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETAnthropic’s recent releases of detailed R&D automation metrics, commerce agent blueprints, and leadership on agent-specific benchmarks such as Agent Arena have driven the 92% market-implied odds for the company holding the best AI agent by end of September. Traders cite Claude models’ superior long-horizon instruction following, tool-use reliability, and internal deployment of thousands of agents as key differentiators over competitors. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and other labs trail significantly in current evaluations. A surprise high-performing model launch or leaderboard shift in the final week remains the main scenario that could narrow this consensus before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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