Tesla’s humanoid robot program has accelerated on the back of confirmed production milestones, with Optimus Gen 3 hardware now walking autonomously and slated for a mid-2026 public reveal ahead of initial low-volume manufacturing. Elon Musk detailed in recent earnings commentary and the Abundance Summit that Fremont factory lines repurposed from Model S and X output will begin S-curve ramp-up in July or August 2026 at roughly one million units annual capacity, followed by a much larger Texas line the following summer. Internal Tesla deployments are already underway to refine capabilities in real factory settings, while AI5 chip integration targets human-level dexterity benchmarks by late 2026. Traders are pricing the 2027 external release window as the most probable near-term catalyst, tempered by historical slips in hardware validation cycles and the need for regulatory and supply-chain readiness before broader commercialization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$87,541 交易量
2026-06-30
6月30日
2%
12月31日
16%
$87,541 交易量
6月30日
$81,671 交易量
2%
12月31日
$5,870 交易量
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s humanoid robot program has accelerated on the back of confirmed production milestones, with Optimus Gen 3 hardware now walking autonomously and slated for a mid-2026 public reveal ahead of initial low-volume manufacturing. Elon Musk detailed in recent earnings commentary and the Abundance Summit that Fremont factory lines repurposed from Model S and X output will begin S-curve ramp-up in July or August 2026 at roughly one million units annual capacity, followed by a much larger Texas line the following summer. Internal Tesla deployments are already underway to refine capabilities in real factory settings, while AI5 chip integration targets human-level dexterity benchmarks by late 2026. Traders are pricing the 2027 external release window as the most probable near-term catalyst, tempered by historical slips in hardware validation cycles and the need for regulatory and supply-chain readiness before broader commercialization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
市场开放时间： Sep 26, 2025, 1:28 PM ET
交易量
$87,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 26, 2025, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s humanoid robot program has accelerated on the back of confirmed production milestones, with Optimus Gen 3 hardware now walking autonomously and slated for a mid-2026 public reveal ahead of initial low-volume manufacturing. Elon Musk detailed in recent earnings commentary and the Abundance Summit that Fremont factory lines repurposed from Model S and X output will begin S-curve ramp-up in July or August 2026 at roughly one million units annual capacity, followed by a much larger Texas line the following summer. Internal Tesla deployments are already underway to refine capabilities in real factory settings, while AI5 chip integration targets human-level dexterity benchmarks by late 2026. Traders are pricing the 2027 external release window as the most probable near-term catalyst, tempered by historical slips in hardware validation cycles and the need for regulatory and supply-chain readiness before broader commercialization.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
交易量
$87,541结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 26, 2025, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s humanoid robot program has accelerated on the back of confirmed production milestones, with Optimus Gen 3 hardware now walking autonomously and slated for a mid-2026 public reveal ahead of initial low-volume manufacturing. Elon Musk detailed in recent earnings commentary and the Abundance Summit that Fremont factory lines repurposed from Model S and X output will begin S-curve ramp-up in July or August 2026 at roughly one million units annual capacity, followed by a much larger Texas line the following summer. Internal Tesla deployments are already underway to refine capabilities in real factory settings, while AI5 chip integration targets human-level dexterity benchmarks by late 2026. Traders are pricing the 2027 external release window as the most probable near-term catalyst, tempered by historical slips in hardware validation cycles and the need for regulatory and supply-chain readiness before broader commercialization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题