Recent releases of Claude Opus 4.7 in April and 4.8 in May have driven the tight market-implied odds around the July 18 resolution, with traders assigning the highest probability to the 4-7-thinking variant due to its documented gains in advanced software engineering, long-horizon agentic tasks, and self-verification on benchmarks such as SWE-bench. The closely matched probabilities reflect incremental differences in reasoning depth and effort modes across 4-6-thinking, 4-7-thinking, and claude-fable-5, where the latter's broader capabilities in knowledge work and vision create uncertainty about which edges out on live leaderboards. No major model launches have occurred in the past month, leaving sentiment anchored to ongoing benchmark updates and platform usage patterns that favor Claude's consistent performance in coding and complex workflows over alternatives. With resolution imminent, small shifts in real-world evals or user-reported reliability could quickly realign the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-4-6-thinking 76%
claude-fable-5 41%
claude-opus-4-6 38%
其他 2%
最新
最新
2026-07-18
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
76%
claude-fable-5
41%
claude-opus-4-6
38%
其他
23%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
39%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 76%
claude-fable-5 41%
claude-opus-4-6 38%
其他 2%
最新
最新
2026-07-18
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$100 交易量
76%
claude-fable-5
$21 交易量
41%
claude-opus-4-6
$21 交易量
38%
其他
$28 交易量
23%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$28 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of Claude Opus 4.7 in April and 4.8 in May have driven the tight market-implied odds around the July 18 resolution, with traders assigning the highest probability to the 4-7-thinking variant due to its documented gains in advanced software engineering, long-horizon agentic tasks, and self-verification on benchmarks such as SWE-bench. The closely matched probabilities reflect incremental differences in reasoning depth and effort modes across 4-6-thinking, 4-7-thinking, and claude-fable-5, where the latter's broader capabilities in knowledge work and vision create uncertainty about which edges out on live leaderboards. No major model launches have occurred in the past month, leaving sentiment anchored to ongoing benchmark updates and platform usage patterns that favor Claude's consistent performance in coding and complex workflows over alternatives. With resolution imminent, small shifts in real-world evals or user-reported reliability could quickly realign the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
交易量
$199结束日期
2026-07-18市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of Claude Opus 4.7 in April and 4.8 in May have driven the tight market-implied odds around the July 18 resolution, with traders assigning the highest probability to the 4-7-thinking variant due to its documented gains in advanced software engineering, long-horizon agentic tasks, and self-verification on benchmarks such as SWE-bench. The closely matched probabilities reflect incremental differences in reasoning depth and effort modes across 4-6-thinking, 4-7-thinking, and claude-fable-5, where the latter's broader capabilities in knowledge work and vision create uncertainty about which edges out on live leaderboards. No major model launches have occurred in the past month, leaving sentiment anchored to ongoing benchmark updates and platform usage patterns that favor Claude's consistent performance in coding and complex workflows over alternatives. With resolution imminent, small shifts in real-world evals or user-reported reliability could quickly realign the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$199结束日期
2026-07-18市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 6:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of Claude Opus 4.7 in April and 4.8 in May have driven the tight market-implied odds around the July 18 resolution, with traders assigning the highest probability to the 4-7-thinking variant due to its documented gains in advanced software engineering, long-horizon agentic tasks, and self-verification on benchmarks such as SWE-bench. The closely matched probabilities reflect incremental differences in reasoning depth and effort modes across 4-6-thinking, 4-7-thinking, and claude-fable-5, where the latter's broader capabilities in knowledge work and vision create uncertainty about which edges out on live leaderboards. No major model launches have occurred in the past month, leaving sentiment anchored to ongoing benchmark updates and platform usage patterns that favor Claude's consistent performance in coding and complex workflows over alternatives. With resolution imminent, small shifts in real-world evals or user-reported reliability could quickly realign the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题