**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster with no confirmed release date as of late August 2026.** Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, prompting traders to price in lower odds for a first-half launch while shifting focus to a year-end window. xAI has instead shipped iterative Grok 4.5 and 4.6 updates optimized for coding and agentic tasks, alongside Grok Imagine video models, reflecting a strategy of rapid point releases ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion-parameter successor. Recent SpaceX AI integration and supplemental training on proprietary data add operational momentum but also highlight execution risks around scaling and timelines. Key near-term catalysts include any Musk or official updates on benchmarks, fine-tuning progress, or regulatory milestones that could clarify whether the model ships before year-end or faces further delays amid intense competition from frontier labs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-08-31
8月31日
<1%
10 月 31 日
35%
11 月 30 日
50%
12 月 31 日
71%
$6,580 交易量
8月31日
$3,006 交易量
<1%
10 月 31 日
$340 交易量
35%
11 月 30 日
$0 交易量
50%
12 月 31 日
$1,711 交易量
71%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster with no confirmed release date as of late August 2026.** Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, prompting traders to price in lower odds for a first-half launch while shifting focus to a year-end window. xAI has instead shipped iterative Grok 4.5 and 4.6 updates optimized for coding and agentic tasks, alongside Grok Imagine video models, reflecting a strategy of rapid point releases ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion-parameter successor. Recent SpaceX AI integration and supplemental training on proprietary data add operational momentum but also highlight execution risks around scaling and timelines. Key near-term catalysts include any Musk or official updates on benchmarks, fine-tuning progress, or regulatory milestones that could clarify whether the model ships before year-end or faces further delays amid intense competition from frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
交易量
$6,580结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster with no confirmed release date as of late August 2026.** Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, prompting traders to price in lower odds for a first-half launch while shifting focus to a year-end window. xAI has instead shipped iterative Grok 4.5 and 4.6 updates optimized for coding and agentic tasks, alongside Grok Imagine video models, reflecting a strategy of rapid point releases ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion-parameter successor. Recent SpaceX AI integration and supplemental training on proprietary data add operational momentum but also highlight execution risks around scaling and timelines. Key near-term catalysts include any Musk or official updates on benchmarks, fine-tuning progress, or regulatory milestones that could clarify whether the model ships before year-end or faces further delays amid intense competition from frontier labs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,580结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains in training on xAI’s Colossus 2 gigawatt cluster with no confirmed release date as of late August 2026.** Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped, prompting traders to price in lower odds for a first-half launch while shifting focus to a year-end window. xAI has instead shipped iterative Grok 4.5 and 4.6 updates optimized for coding and agentic tasks, alongside Grok Imagine video models, reflecting a strategy of rapid point releases ahead of the larger 6–10 trillion-parameter successor. Recent SpaceX AI integration and supplemental training on proprietary data add operational momentum but also highlight execution risks around scaling and timelines. Key near-term catalysts include any Musk or official updates on benchmarks, fine-tuning progress, or regulatory milestones that could clarify whether the model ships before year-end or faces further delays amid intense competition from frontier labs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题