Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.7% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal action nearly 11 months after his July 2025 announcement of the "America Party" amid a public feud with President Trump. Musk immediately refuted claims of FEC registration, and reports by August 2025 indicated he shelved plans to focus on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI priorities. Recent joint appearances with Trump suggest reconciliation, diminishing third-party incentives. U.S. ballot access hurdles—state-by-state signature requirements and recognition processes—pose significant barriers, with no updates or organizing efforts since, underscoring low probability despite ample time remaining.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.7% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal action nearly 11 months after his July 2025 announcement of the "America Party" amid a public feud with President Trump. Musk immediately refuted claims of FEC registration, and reports by August 2025 indicated he shelved plans to focus on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI priorities. Recent joint appearances with Trump suggest reconciliation, diminishing third-party incentives. U.S. ballot access hurdles—state-by-state signature requirements and recognition processes—pose significant barriers, with no updates or organizing efforts since, underscoring low probability despite ample time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
交易量
$6,058结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.7% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal action nearly 11 months after his July 2025 announcement of the "America Party" amid a public feud with President Trump. Musk immediately refuted claims of FEC registration, and reports by August 2025 indicated he shelved plans to focus on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI priorities. Recent joint appearances with Trump suggest reconciliation, diminishing third-party incentives. U.S. ballot access hurdles—state-by-state signature requirements and recognition processes—pose significant barriers, with no updates or organizing efforts since, underscoring low probability despite ample time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
交易量
$6,058结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.7% for Elon Musk registering any political party before 2027, reflecting the absence of formal action nearly 11 months after his July 2025 announcement of the "America Party" amid a public feud with President Trump. Musk immediately refuted claims of FEC registration, and reports by August 2025 indicated he shelved plans to focus on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI priorities. Recent joint appearances with Trump suggest reconciliation, diminishing third-party incentives. U.S. ballot access hurdles—state-by-state signature requirements and recognition processes—pose significant barriers, with no updates or organizing efforts since, underscoring low probability despite ample time remaining.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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