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icon for 2026年12月31日最富有的人?

2026年12月31日最富有的人?

icon for 2026年12月31日最富有的人?

2026年12月31日最富有的人?

12月 31

12月 31

埃隆·马斯克 97.7%

沃伦·巴菲特 <1%

拉里·佩奇 <1%

贝尔纳·阿尔诺 <1%

Polymarket

$1,906,190 交易量

埃隆·马斯克 97.7%

沃伦·巴菲特 <1%

拉里·佩奇 <1%

贝尔纳·阿尔诺 <1%

Polymarket

$1,906,190 交易量

icon for 埃隆·马斯克

埃隆·马斯克

$190,867 交易量

98%

icon for 沃伦·巴菲特

沃伦·巴菲特

$90,766 交易量

1%

icon for 拉里·佩奇

拉里·佩奇

$147,539 交易量

<1%

icon for 贝尔纳·阿尔诺

贝尔纳·阿尔诺

$367,404 交易量

<1%

icon for 史蒂夫·鲍尔默

史蒂夫·鲍尔默

$310,571 交易量

<1%

icon for 黄仁勋

黄仁勋

$179,304 交易量

<1%

icon for 谢尔盖·布林

谢尔盖·布林

$87,672 交易量

<1%

icon for 杰夫·贝索斯

杰夫·贝索斯

$339,324 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉里·埃里森

拉里·埃里森

$60,026 交易量

<1%

icon for 马克·扎克伯格

马克·扎克伯格

$132,720 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's commanding lead in the richest-person market stems from his overwhelming net-worth gap, driven by major ownership stakes in Tesla and especially SpaceX after its 2026 IPO, which briefly pushed him past the trillion-dollar mark. Recent performance of those companies, alongside xAI developments, has reinforced trader consensus around his position through year-end despite daily fluctuations in valuations. The gap to challengers like Larry Page or Bernard Arnault remains hundreds of billions, making a reversal unlikely without extraordinary events. Realistic upset paths include sharp tech-sector corrections, regulatory setbacks hitting Musk's firms hardest, or unexpected surges in AI or luxury-goods holdings by rivals.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
交易量
$1,906,190
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's commanding lead in the richest-person market stems from his overwhelming net-worth gap, driven by major ownership stakes in Tesla and especially SpaceX after its 2026 IPO, which briefly pushed him past the trillion-dollar mark. Recent performance of those companies, alongside xAI developments, has reinforced trader consensus around his position through year-end despite daily fluctuations in valuations. The gap to challengers like Larry Page or Bernard Arnault remains hundreds of billions, making a reversal unlikely without extraordinary events. Realistic upset paths include sharp tech-sector corrections, regulatory setbacks hitting Musk's firms hardest, or unexpected surges in AI or luxury-goods holdings by rivals.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
交易量
$1,906,190
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年12月31日最富有的人?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"埃隆·马斯克",概率为 98%,其次是"沃伦·巴菲特",概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 98¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 98%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年12月31日最富有的人?"已产生 $1.9 million 的总交易量(自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年12月31日最富有的人?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年12月31日最富有的人?"的当前领先者是"埃隆·马斯克",概率为 98%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 98%。紧随其后的结果是"沃伦·巴菲特",概率为 1%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年12月31日最富有的人?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。