SpaceX's aggressive Falcon 9 cadence, driven by rapid Starlink V2 Mini deployments from both Florida and California sites, anchors trader expectations around 13 total launches for August 2026. Multiple Starlink missions have already flown early in the month, with additional flights scheduled through mid-August including Globalstar and further constellation batches, while a potential Falcon Heavy for the Roman Space Telescope and Starship Flight 14 add variability. Weather scrubs, booster recovery logistics, and payload integration timelines create the wide spread across outcomes, with traders weighting historical monthly averages and recent operational tempo more heavily than speculative delays.