Elon Musk's public statements in late July and early August 2026 have anchored trader expectations around an August 7 target for Grok 4.6, positioning it as an imminent post-training upgrade on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation introduced with Grok 4.5 in mid-July. The model emphasizes gains in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost performance on coding, agentic tasks, and benchmarks while maintaining efficiency against rivals like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. xAI's accelerated cadence—shipping major updates every few weeks—combined with confirmed Arena leaderboard placement the week after launch, drives market-implied odds toward a near-term release, though historical timeline slippage and lack of an official xAI announcement introduce residual uncertainty ahead of any API or platform rollout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$19,421 交易量
2026-08-07
8月7日
7%
8月14日
84%
$19,421 交易量
8月7日
$10,723 交易量
7%
8月14日
$8,699 交易量
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's public statements in late July and early August 2026 have anchored trader expectations around an August 7 target for Grok 4.6, positioning it as an imminent post-training upgrade on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation introduced with Grok 4.5 in mid-July. The model emphasizes gains in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost performance on coding, agentic tasks, and benchmarks while maintaining efficiency against rivals like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. xAI's accelerated cadence—shipping major updates every few weeks—combined with confirmed Arena leaderboard placement the week after launch, drives market-implied odds toward a near-term release, though historical timeline slippage and lack of an official xAI announcement introduce residual uncertainty ahead of any API or platform rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$19,421结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's public statements in late July and early August 2026 have anchored trader expectations around an August 7 target for Grok 4.6, positioning it as an imminent post-training upgrade on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation introduced with Grok 4.5 in mid-July. The model emphasizes gains in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost performance on coding, agentic tasks, and benchmarks while maintaining efficiency against rivals like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. xAI's accelerated cadence—shipping major updates every few weeks—combined with confirmed Arena leaderboard placement the week after launch, drives market-implied odds toward a near-term release, though historical timeline slippage and lack of an official xAI announcement introduce residual uncertainty ahead of any API or platform rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,421结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's public statements in late July and early August 2026 have anchored trader expectations around an August 7 target for Grok 4.6, positioning it as an imminent post-training upgrade on the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation introduced with Grok 4.5 in mid-July. The model emphasizes gains in supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale, aiming to boost performance on coding, agentic tasks, and benchmarks while maintaining efficiency against rivals like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. xAI's accelerated cadence—shipping major updates every few weeks—combined with confirmed Arena leaderboard placement the week after launch, drives market-implied odds toward a near-term release, though historical timeline slippage and lack of an official xAI announcement introduce residual uncertainty ahead of any API or platform rollout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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