Recent short-range forecasts for Qingdao place the August 16 daily maximum near 29–31°C, driven by persistent onshore flow from the Yellow Sea moderating coastal temperatures, combined with expected cloud cover and light rain chances that limit afternoon heating. Regional heat earlier in August has raised baseline sea-surface temperatures, supporting modest upside potential if skies clear or winds shift, which explains why trader-implied odds favor 32–33°C over lower outcomes. Ensemble spread in models introduces the small probabilities assigned to 34°C or higher, while historical August averages of 28–30°C anchor the distribution against extremes. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日青岛气温最高？
8月16日青岛气温最高？
33°C 43%
32°C 28%
34°C 16%
31°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
12%
32°C
28%
33°C
43%
34°C
16%
35°C
5%
36°C或更高
1%
33°C 43%
32°C 28%
34°C 16%
31°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
26°C或以下
$101 交易量
<1%
27°C
$58 交易量
<1%
28°C
$133 交易量
1%
29°C
$102 交易量
1%
30°C
$180 交易量
4%
31°C
$98 交易量
12%
32°C
$248 交易量
28%
33°C
$1,415 交易量
43%
34°C
$366 交易量
16%
35°C
$37 交易量
5%
36°C或更高
$69 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts for Qingdao place the August 16 daily maximum near 29–31°C, driven by persistent onshore flow from the Yellow Sea moderating coastal temperatures, combined with expected cloud cover and light rain chances that limit afternoon heating. Regional heat earlier in August has raised baseline sea-surface temperatures, supporting modest upside potential if skies clear or winds shift, which explains why trader-implied odds favor 32–33°C over lower outcomes. Ensemble spread in models introduces the small probabilities assigned to 34°C or higher, while historical August averages of 28–30°C anchor the distribution against extremes. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$2,806结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts for Qingdao place the August 16 daily maximum near 29–31°C, driven by persistent onshore flow from the Yellow Sea moderating coastal temperatures, combined with expected cloud cover and light rain chances that limit afternoon heating. Regional heat earlier in August has raised baseline sea-surface temperatures, supporting modest upside potential if skies clear or winds shift, which explains why trader-implied odds favor 32–33°C over lower outcomes. Ensemble spread in models introduces the small probabilities assigned to 34°C or higher, while historical August averages of 28–30°C anchor the distribution against extremes. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,806结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts for Qingdao place the August 16 daily maximum near 29–31°C, driven by persistent onshore flow from the Yellow Sea moderating coastal temperatures, combined with expected cloud cover and light rain chances that limit afternoon heating. Regional heat earlier in August has raised baseline sea-surface temperatures, supporting modest upside potential if skies clear or winds shift, which explains why trader-implied odds favor 32–33°C over lower outcomes. Ensemble spread in models introduces the small probabilities assigned to 34°C or higher, while historical August averages of 28–30°C anchor the distribution against extremes. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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