Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月14日马尼拉的最高温度？
31°C 46%
32°C 28%
30°C 21%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
21%
31°C
35%
32°C
28%
33°C
10%
34°C
1%
35°C或更高
<1%
31°C 46%
32°C 28%
30°C 21%
29°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
25°C或以下
$343 交易量
<1%
26°C
$23 交易量
<1%
27°C
$21 交易量
1%
28°C
$234 交易量
4%
29°C
$100 交易量
10%
30°C
$2 交易量
21%
31°C
$15 交易量
35%
32°C
$30 交易量
28%
33°C
$60 交易量
10%
34°C
$37 交易量
1%
35°C或更高
$100 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$882结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$882结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETOfficial forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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