Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日马德里气温最高？
8月14日马德里气温最高？
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 11%
37°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
35°C或以下
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
6%
38°C
30%
39°C
48%
40°C
11%
41°C
5%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或更高
<1%
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 11%
37°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
35°C或以下
$38 交易量
1%
36°C
$23 交易量
2%
37°C
$86 交易量
6%
38°C
$154 交易量
30%
39°C
$174 交易量
48%
40°C
$107 交易量
11%
41°C
$23 交易量
5%
42°C
$5 交易量
3%
43°C
$12 交易量
<1%
44°C
$16 交易量
<1%
45°C或更高
$31 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$669结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$669结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent short-range forecasts from agencies including AccuWeather and Weather25 project Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14, 2026, to reach 38–39 °C under continued hot, dry summer conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds. These values sit well above the long-term August mean daily high of roughly 32 °C, reflecting persistent warm-air advection from North Africa and limited cooling overnight. Model consensus currently clusters in this narrow band, producing the market’s heaviest weighting on 38 °C (30.5 %) and 39 °C (47.5 %), while the modest probability attached to 40 °C (10.5 %) accounts for possible small upward revisions in the final model runs or localized urban heat-island effects before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题