Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日马德里气温最高？
8月13日马德里气温最高？
39°C 50%
40°C 38%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
8%
39°C
50%
40°C
38%
41°C
6%
42°C
2%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C或更高
<1%
39°C 50%
40°C 38%
38°C 8%
41°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
35°C or below
$71 交易量
<1%
36°C
$92 交易量
1%
37°C
$194 交易量
2%
38°C
$145 交易量
8%
39°C
$223 交易量
50%
40°C
$644 交易量
38%
41°C
$99 交易量
6%
42°C
$147 交易量
2%
43°C
$83 交易量
1%
44°C
$182 交易量
<1%
45°C或更高
$70 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,950结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources including ECMWF and AEMET points to a strengthening heat dome over western Europe, with high pressure promoting subsidence warming, clear skies, and minimal cloud cover to drive Madrid's August 13 maximum into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius. Persistent southerly flow of warmer air masses from North Africa, combined with the seasonal baseline for central Spain, supports the market's heavy weighting toward 39°C and 40°C outcomes. Short-range forecasts currently cluster near 39–40°C, though minor shifts in the position of the ridge or localized convection could nudge the peak slightly lower or higher ahead of resolution. Traders are monitoring the next ECMWF and GFS runs for confirmation of these atmospheric patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题