Trader consensus around the closely matched 23°C and 24°C outcomes stems from the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, which indicate an overnight low near these thresholds amid typical mid-August conditions. Key differentiating factors include expected cloud cover variations that influence radiative cooling rates, light wind patterns limiting mixing of warmer air, and humidity levels affecting dew point temperatures in the urban environment. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertainty in mesoscale features, with historical August minima in Tokyo averaging around 23–25°C providing context. New observational data and updated runs from regional models will refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日东京气温最低？
8月13日东京气温最低？
23°C 50%
24°C 41%
22°C 7%
21°C 2%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
18℃或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
50%
24°C
41%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C或更高
<1%
23°C 50%
24°C 41%
22°C 7%
21°C 2%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
18℃或以下
$111 交易量
<1%
19°C
$115 交易量
<1%
20°C
$97 交易量
<1%
21°C
$153 交易量
2%
22°C
$222 交易量
7%
23°C
$545 交易量
50%
24°C
$354 交易量
41%
25°C
$162 交易量
2%
26°C
$153 交易量
2%
27°C
$126 交易量
<1%
28°C或更高
$206 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around the closely matched 23°C and 24°C outcomes stems from the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, which indicate an overnight low near these thresholds amid typical mid-August conditions. Key differentiating factors include expected cloud cover variations that influence radiative cooling rates, light wind patterns limiting mixing of warmer air, and humidity levels affecting dew point temperatures in the urban environment. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertainty in mesoscale features, with historical August minima in Tokyo averaging around 23–25°C providing context. New observational data and updated runs from regional models will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,244结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around the closely matched 23°C and 24°C outcomes stems from the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, which indicate an overnight low near these thresholds amid typical mid-August conditions. Key differentiating factors include expected cloud cover variations that influence radiative cooling rates, light wind patterns limiting mixing of warmer air, and humidity levels affecting dew point temperatures in the urban environment. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertainty in mesoscale features, with historical August minima in Tokyo averaging around 23–25°C providing context. New observational data and updated runs from regional models will refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,244结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus around the closely matched 23°C and 24°C outcomes stems from the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast models, which indicate an overnight low near these thresholds amid typical mid-August conditions. Key differentiating factors include expected cloud cover variations that influence radiative cooling rates, light wind patterns limiting mixing of warmer air, and humidity levels affecting dew point temperatures in the urban environment. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertainty in mesoscale features, with historical August minima in Tokyo averaging around 23–25°C providing context. New observational data and updated runs from regional models will refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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