**Recent typhoon impacts and persistent rain/cloud cover are suppressing Shanghai’s daytime highs below typical August levels, positioning 28–30°C as the leading outcomes in the market.** Typhoon Dolphin’s landfall near August 9–10 delivered extreme rainfall (over 300 mm in 24 hours at some stations) and widespread flooding, with lingering effects including thick cloud cover, scattered to heavy showers, and reduced solar heating expected through August 14. Official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate project maximum temperatures around 30–31°C (87–88°F) under these conditions, well below the month’s climatological average of ~32–35°C. High humidity and monsoon moisture further moderate peaks by limiting radiative warming. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48.5% implied probability for 29°C and combined ~92% for 28–30°C, aligns with numerical weather model guidance showing a narrow range amid ongoing overcast skies. Upcoming forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refined model runs will likely drive any shifts as the post-typhoon pattern evolves. Historical analogs indicate that such systems often keep maxima in this band rather than allowing rebound to seasonal norms.