Trader consensus centers on AEMET forecasts and ensemble models projecting a Madrid maximum near 39 °C on August 12, yielding the 57.5 % implied probability for that outcome and 32.5 % for 38 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging and residual warm advection from recent heat episodes sustain these levels, while moderating Atlantic influences and typical mid-August diurnal ranges cap upside risk, limiting 40 °C odds to 10 %. Official guidance emphasizes measurement at standard stations under WMO protocols, with limited model spread supporting the narrow distribution around 38–39 °C rather than extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月12日马德里气温最高？
8月12日马德里气温最高？
39°C 57%
38°C 33%
40°C 11%
37°C 3%
最新
$24,687 交易量
最新
$24,687 交易量
2026-08-12
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
33%
39°C
57%
40°C
11%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 57%
38°C 33%
40°C 11%
37°C 3%
最新
$24,687 交易量
最新
$24,687 交易量
2026-08-12
33°C or below
$11,235 交易量
<1%
34°C
$417 交易量
<1%
35°C
$640 交易量
<1%
36°C
$495 交易量
1%
37°C
$1,475 交易量
3%
38°C
$4,558 交易量
33%
39°C
$2,154 交易量
57%
40°C
$1,671 交易量
11%
41°C
$609 交易量
1%
42°C
$654 交易量
<1%
43°C or higher
$779 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on AEMET forecasts and ensemble models projecting a Madrid maximum near 39 °C on August 12, yielding the 57.5 % implied probability for that outcome and 32.5 % for 38 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging and residual warm advection from recent heat episodes sustain these levels, while moderating Atlantic influences and typical mid-August diurnal ranges cap upside risk, limiting 40 °C odds to 10 %. Official guidance emphasizes measurement at standard stations under WMO protocols, with limited model spread supporting the narrow distribution around 38–39 °C rather than extremes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$24,687结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus centers on AEMET forecasts and ensemble models projecting a Madrid maximum near 39 °C on August 12, yielding the 57.5 % implied probability for that outcome and 32.5 % for 38 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging and residual warm advection from recent heat episodes sustain these levels, while moderating Atlantic influences and typical mid-August diurnal ranges cap upside risk, limiting 40 °C odds to 10 %. Official guidance emphasizes measurement at standard stations under WMO protocols, with limited model spread supporting the narrow distribution around 38–39 °C rather than extremes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24,687结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETTrader consensus centers on AEMET forecasts and ensemble models projecting a Madrid maximum near 39 °C on August 12, yielding the 57.5 % implied probability for that outcome and 32.5 % for 38 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging and residual warm advection from recent heat episodes sustain these levels, while moderating Atlantic influences and typical mid-August diurnal ranges cap upside risk, limiting 40 °C odds to 10 %. Official guidance emphasizes measurement at standard stations under WMO protocols, with limited model spread supporting the narrow distribution around 38–39 °C rather than extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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