Recent forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service and model consensus place the overnight minimum temperature in New York City on August 12 in the low-to-mid 70s, reflecting a persistent warm, humid air mass with limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with the broader August 2026 outlook for above-average temperatures, driven by mid-summer heat patterns and the absence of significant cold-air advection or frontal passages in the short term. The 74-75°F bin leads market-implied odds at 40.5% because ensemble guidance clusters there, while 72-73°F (24.5%) captures potential for slightly greater cooling if clouds clear overnight. Higher bins remain discounted absent model shifts, and lower outcomes appear unlikely given current thermodynamic profiles. Updated NWS guidance and 12Z model runs on August 11 represent the next key data points that could adjust these probabilities.