National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance converge on a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s for August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and peak late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the market’s leading 86–87°F (42.5%) and 88–89°F (32.5%) bins, which together capture about 75% implied probability. Sea-breeze onset or scattered afternoon convection could still trim readings into the 84–85°F range (19.5%), while historical August averages near 83°F provide context for the slightly above-normal pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings through the day remain key variables for traders monitoring resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于纽约市8月12日的最高温度？
纽约市8月12日的最高温度？
86-87°F 43%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 20%
90-91°F 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
43%
88-89°F
33%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 43%
88-89°F 33%
84-85°F 20%
90-91°F 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
79°F or below
$756 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$188 交易量
<1%
82-83°F
$708 交易量
4%
84-85°F
$1,004 交易量
20%
86-87°F
$755 交易量
43%
88-89°F
$1,148 交易量
33%
90-91°F
$509 交易量
5%
92-93°F
$306 交易量
2%
94-95°F
$343 交易量
<1%
96-97°F
$292 交易量
<1%
98°F or higher
$381 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance converge on a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s for August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and peak late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the market’s leading 86–87°F (42.5%) and 88–89°F (32.5%) bins, which together capture about 75% implied probability. Sea-breeze onset or scattered afternoon convection could still trim readings into the 84–85°F range (19.5%), while historical August averages near 83°F provide context for the slightly above-normal pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings through the day remain key variables for traders monitoring resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$5,978结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance converge on a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s for August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and peak late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the market’s leading 86–87°F (42.5%) and 88–89°F (32.5%) bins, which together capture about 75% implied probability. Sea-breeze onset or scattered afternoon convection could still trim readings into the 84–85°F range (19.5%), while historical August averages near 83°F provide context for the slightly above-normal pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings through the day remain key variables for traders monitoring resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,978结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 9:02 PM ETNational Weather Service and ensemble model guidance converge on a Central Park high in the mid-to-upper 80s for August 12, driven by moderate southwesterly flow, limited cloud cover, and peak late-summer solar insolation. This consensus underpins the market’s leading 86–87°F (42.5%) and 88–89°F (32.5%) bins, which together capture about 75% implied probability. Sea-breeze onset or scattered afternoon convection could still trim readings into the 84–85°F range (19.5%), while historical August averages near 83°F provide context for the slightly above-normal pattern. Updated model runs and official briefings through the day remain key variables for traders monitoring resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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