Current forecasts from ensemble models position Istanbul's August 16 daily maximum near 26–28°C at the NOAA-monitored airport station, driven by persistent overcast or partly cloudy skies and moderate northeasterly winds of 15–20 mph that enhance cooling via Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes. These late-summer Mediterranean conditions limit surface heating relative to the long-term August average high of 27–29°C, producing tight probability clustering around 26°C (market-implied 65.5%) and 27°C while suppressing extremes above 28°C. Recent model runs show no significant warm advection or clear-sky periods that would push readings higher, and historical variability from cloud cover or wind shifts keeps 25°C viable. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and next model cycles will further refine these near-term uncertainties before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
8月16日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
26°C 66%
27°C 18%
25°C 15%
24°C 3%
最新
$13,510 交易量
最新
$13,510 交易量
2026-08-16
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
15%
26°C
66%
27°C
18%
28°C
3%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 66%
27°C 18%
25°C 15%
24°C 3%
最新
$13,510 交易量
最新
$13,510 交易量
2026-08-16
22°C or below
$744 交易量
<1%
23°C
$880 交易量
1%
24°C
$471 交易量
3%
25°C
$1,867 交易量
15%
26°C
$3,466 交易量
66%
27°C
$3,822 交易量
18%
28°C
$550 交易量
3%
29°C
$215 交易量
<1%
30°C
$636 交易量
<1%
31°C
$657 交易量
<1%
32°C or higher
$202 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ensemble models position Istanbul's August 16 daily maximum near 26–28°C at the NOAA-monitored airport station, driven by persistent overcast or partly cloudy skies and moderate northeasterly winds of 15–20 mph that enhance cooling via Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes. These late-summer Mediterranean conditions limit surface heating relative to the long-term August average high of 27–29°C, producing tight probability clustering around 26°C (market-implied 65.5%) and 27°C while suppressing extremes above 28°C. Recent model runs show no significant warm advection or clear-sky periods that would push readings higher, and historical variability from cloud cover or wind shifts keeps 25°C viable. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and next model cycles will further refine these near-term uncertainties before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$13,510结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from ensemble models position Istanbul's August 16 daily maximum near 26–28°C at the NOAA-monitored airport station, driven by persistent overcast or partly cloudy skies and moderate northeasterly winds of 15–20 mph that enhance cooling via Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes. These late-summer Mediterranean conditions limit surface heating relative to the long-term August average high of 27–29°C, producing tight probability clustering around 26°C (market-implied 65.5%) and 27°C while suppressing extremes above 28°C. Recent model runs show no significant warm advection or clear-sky periods that would push readings higher, and historical variability from cloud cover or wind shifts keeps 25°C viable. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and next model cycles will further refine these near-term uncertainties before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$13,510结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from ensemble models position Istanbul's August 16 daily maximum near 26–28°C at the NOAA-monitored airport station, driven by persistent overcast or partly cloudy skies and moderate northeasterly winds of 15–20 mph that enhance cooling via Black Sea and Bosphorus sea breezes. These late-summer Mediterranean conditions limit surface heating relative to the long-term August average high of 27–29°C, producing tight probability clustering around 26°C (market-implied 65.5%) and 27°C while suppressing extremes above 28°C. Recent model runs show no significant warm advection or clear-sky periods that would push readings higher, and historical variability from cloud cover or wind shifts keeps 25°C viable. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and next model cycles will further refine these near-term uncertainties before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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