Traders assign a 71.2% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market’s assessment that elevated inflation risks will keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The recent surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict has lifted headline CPI to 3.3% in March, while resilient April payrolls and steady unemployment near 4.3% have reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance following the April 29 FOMC decision to hold rates. Major banks including BofA now project no easing until 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that places the odds of any 2026 cut below 30%. Upcoming May inflation and employment releases will test whether these pressures ease enough to reopen the door to modest easing later in the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0（0 基点） 71.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,852,331 交易量
$26,852,331 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
71%
1 (25 个基点)
16%
2（50个基点）
7%
3（75 个基点）
3%
4（100 基点）
2%
5（125个基点）
1%
6（150个基点）
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
1%
8（200 个基点）
<1%
9（225 个基点）
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
1%
0（0 基点） 71.2%
1 (25 个基点) 16%
2（50个基点） 7%
3（75 个基点） 2.7%
$26,852,331 交易量
$26,852,331 交易量
2026-12-31
0（0 基点）
$4,184,010 交易量
71%
1 (25 个基点)
$1,243,888 交易量
16%
2（50个基点）
$1,203,051 交易量
7%
3（75 个基点）
$1,112,421 交易量
3%
4（100 基点）
$1,193,845 交易量
2%
5（125个基点）
$1,413,398 交易量
1%
6（150个基点）
$2,481,954 交易量
1%
分组项标题：7（175 个基点）
$1,321,687 交易量
1%
8（200 个基点）
$1,723,488 交易量
<1%
9（225 个基点）
$2,449,228 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：10（250 个基点）
$3,115,532 交易量
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$3,262,691 交易量
<1%
12+ (300+ 基点)
$2,147,291 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign a 71.2% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market’s assessment that elevated inflation risks will keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The recent surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict has lifted headline CPI to 3.3% in March, while resilient April payrolls and steady unemployment near 4.3% have reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance following the April 29 FOMC decision to hold rates. Major banks including BofA now project no easing until 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that places the odds of any 2026 cut below 30%. Upcoming May inflation and employment releases will test whether these pressures ease enough to reopen the door to modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$26,852,331结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign a 71.2% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market’s assessment that elevated inflation risks will keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The recent surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict has lifted headline CPI to 3.3% in March, while resilient April payrolls and steady unemployment near 4.3% have reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance following the April 29 FOMC decision to hold rates. Major banks including BofA now project no easing until 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that places the odds of any 2026 cut below 30%. Upcoming May inflation and employment releases will test whether these pressures ease enough to reopen the door to modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$26,852,331结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 71.2% implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting the market’s assessment that elevated inflation risks will keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The recent surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict has lifted headline CPI to 3.3% in March, while resilient April payrolls and steady unemployment near 4.3% have reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance following the April 29 FOMC decision to hold rates. Major banks including BofA now project no easing until 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch pricing that places the odds of any 2026 cut below 30%. Upcoming May inflation and employment releases will test whether these pressures ease enough to reopen the door to modest easing later in the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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