Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair concluded in May 2026 upon Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as successor, yet his separate 14-year term as a Board of Governors member runs through January 2028. Powell has publicly committed to remaining on the board for an undetermined period until a Justice Department investigation into the central bank's headquarters renovation reaches full resolution with transparency. This stance, amid ongoing political pressures from the Trump administration and questions around Fed independence, forms the core driver of trader sentiment on exit timing. Market-implied probabilities reflect low near-term departure risk absent new developments in the probe or policy shifts, with resolution potentially hinging on investigation milestones or voluntary departure signals ahead of the 2028 expiration.