The Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair yesterday has solidified trader consensus that Jerome Powell will depart at the end of his term tomorrow, May 15, driving the 96.5% implied probability for May 15–22. Powell has repeatedly stated he plans to step aside upon term expiration but remain on the Board of Governors through 2028, following clearance of a DOJ probe into him last month and Sen. Tillis dropping opposition in late April. Trump's January nomination of Warsh, an inflation hawk and former Fed governor, advanced through committee hurdles amid debates over central bank independence. Realistic challenges include delays in Warsh's swearing-in ceremony or procedural transition snags, though historical precedents favor prompt handovers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
May 15–22 96.5%
May 23–29 <1%
May 30–June 5 <1%
Before May 15 <1%
$109,883 交易量
$109,883 交易量
2026-07-03
Before May 15
1%
May 15–22
97%
May 23–29
1%
May 30–June 5
1%
June 6–12
<1%
June 13–19
1%
June 20–26
<1%
June 27–July 3
<1%
After July 3
<1%
May 15–22 96.5%
May 23–29 <1%
May 30–June 5 <1%
Before May 15 <1%
$109,883 交易量
$109,883 交易量
2026-07-03
Before May 15
$26,290 交易量
1%
May 15–22
$30,979 交易量
97%
May 23–29
$6,325 交易量
1%
May 30–June 5
$5,938 交易量
1%
June 6–12
$7,136 交易量
<1%
June 13–19
$6,658 交易量
1%
June 20–26
$9,622 交易量
<1%
June 27–July 3
$3,216 交易量
<1%
After July 3
$13,719 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair yesterday has solidified trader consensus that Jerome Powell will depart at the end of his term tomorrow, May 15, driving the 96.5% implied probability for May 15–22. Powell has repeatedly stated he plans to step aside upon term expiration but remain on the Board of Governors through 2028, following clearance of a DOJ probe into him last month and Sen. Tillis dropping opposition in late April. Trump's January nomination of Warsh, an inflation hawk and former Fed governor, advanced through committee hurdles amid debates over central bank independence. Realistic challenges include delays in Warsh's swearing-in ceremony or procedural transition snags, though historical precedents favor prompt handovers.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$109,883结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair yesterday has solidified trader consensus that Jerome Powell will depart at the end of his term tomorrow, May 15, driving the 96.5% implied probability for May 15–22. Powell has repeatedly stated he plans to step aside upon term expiration but remain on the Board of Governors through 2028, following clearance of a DOJ probe into him last month and Sen. Tillis dropping opposition in late April. Trump's January nomination of Warsh, an inflation hawk and former Fed governor, advanced through committee hurdles amid debates over central bank independence. Realistic challenges include delays in Warsh's swearing-in ceremony or procedural transition snags, though historical precedents favor prompt handovers.
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.
The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair.
This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution.
All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$109,883结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Senate's 54-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair yesterday has solidified trader consensus that Jerome Powell will depart at the end of his term tomorrow, May 15, driving the 96.5% implied probability for May 15–22. Powell has repeatedly stated he plans to step aside upon term expiration but remain on the Board of Governors through 2028, following clearance of a DOJ probe into him last month and Sen. Tillis dropping opposition in late April. Trump's January nomination of Warsh, an inflation hawk and former Fed governor, advanced through committee hurdles amid debates over central bank independence. Realistic challenges include delays in Warsh's swearing-in ceremony or procedural transition snags, though historical precedents favor prompt handovers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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