Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has kept officials on hold. April 2026 CPI readings remained above the 2% target while nonfarm payrolls continued to show steady job gains and contained wage pressures, aligning with recent Fed communications stressing data dependence over near-term easing. Market pricing also incorporates stable Treasury yields and limited volatility in rate-sensitive assets, reinforcing the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A sharper slowdown in May employment figures or a material downside surprise in the next inflation release could still prompt a reassessment and open the door for a 25 basis point cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 94%
加息25个基点 3.5%
降低25个基点 3.0%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$5,525,307 交易量
$5,525,307 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
1%
降低25个基点
3%
无变化
94%
加息25个基点
4%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 94%
加息25个基点 3.5%
降低25个基点 3.0%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$5,525,307 交易量
$5,525,307 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$538,047 交易量
1%
降低25个基点
$415,558 交易量
3%
无变化
$652,245 交易量
94%
加息25个基点
$3,397,948 交易量
4%
上调50个基点以上
$521,509 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has kept officials on hold. April 2026 CPI readings remained above the 2% target while nonfarm payrolls continued to show steady job gains and contained wage pressures, aligning with recent Fed communications stressing data dependence over near-term easing. Market pricing also incorporates stable Treasury yields and limited volatility in rate-sensitive assets, reinforcing the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A sharper slowdown in May employment figures or a material downside surprise in the next inflation release could still prompt a reassessment and open the door for a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$5,525,307结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has kept officials on hold. April 2026 CPI readings remained above the 2% target while nonfarm payrolls continued to show steady job gains and contained wage pressures, aligning with recent Fed communications stressing data dependence over near-term easing. Market pricing also incorporates stable Treasury yields and limited volatility in rate-sensitive assets, reinforcing the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A sharper slowdown in May employment figures or a material downside surprise in the next inflation release could still prompt a reassessment and open the door for a 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,525,307结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient economic data that has kept officials on hold. April 2026 CPI readings remained above the 2% target while nonfarm payrolls continued to show steady job gains and contained wage pressures, aligning with recent Fed communications stressing data dependence over near-term easing. Market pricing also incorporates stable Treasury yields and limited volatility in rate-sensitive assets, reinforcing the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A sharper slowdown in May employment figures or a material downside surprise in the next inflation release could still prompt a reassessment and open the door for a 25 basis point cut.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题