Elevated September 2026 CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and a strong pace of economic activity continue to anchor trader sentiment around the April 2027 FOMC decision, where market-implied odds currently favor no change at 56.5% followed by a 25 basis point increase at 27.0%. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.75-4.00% target range on October 28 amid persistent price pressures, with two dissents favoring a quarter-point hike and an explicit statement that inflation remains elevated. Recent data showing resilient domestic spending and robust productivity growth have reinforced expectations for measured tightening rather than aggressive moves, while the central bank’s plan for fewer rate-setting meetings in 2027 adds a layer of caution to longer-term paths. The December 2026 meeting stands out as the next near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities ahead of April.