Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the number of 2026 Fed rate hikes, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July after 3.5% in June amid lingering energy-price pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 decision on a 9-3 vote, reflecting internal divisions that have shifted market-implied odds toward one or fewer 25-basis-point hikes for the full year. Recent cooler CPI prints have tempered September hike probabilities, while the June dot plot showed a median projection for modest tightening by year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh inflation and labor data, will likely determine whether the 44.5% probability of zero hikes or the 34.5% odds of one hike prevail.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3次（75个基点） 3.4%
$157,521 交易量
$157,521 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
35%
2 (50 bps)
13%
3次（75个基点）
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 13%
3次（75个基点） 3.4%
$157,521 交易量
$157,521 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
$67,881 交易量
45%
1 (25 bps)
$22,209 交易量
35%
2 (50 bps)
$37,028 交易量
13%
3次（75个基点）
$18,514 交易量
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,557 交易量
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,331 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the number of 2026 Fed rate hikes, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July after 3.5% in June amid lingering energy-price pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 decision on a 9-3 vote, reflecting internal divisions that have shifted market-implied odds toward one or fewer 25-basis-point hikes for the full year. Recent cooler CPI prints have tempered September hike probabilities, while the June dot plot showed a median projection for modest tightening by year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh inflation and labor data, will likely determine whether the 44.5% probability of zero hikes or the 34.5% odds of one hike prevail.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市场开放时间： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$157,521结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the number of 2026 Fed rate hikes, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July after 3.5% in June amid lingering energy-price pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 decision on a 9-3 vote, reflecting internal divisions that have shifted market-implied odds toward one or fewer 25-basis-point hikes for the full year. Recent cooler CPI prints have tempered September hike probabilities, while the June dot plot showed a median projection for modest tightening by year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh inflation and labor data, will likely determine whether the 44.5% probability of zero hikes or the 34.5% odds of one hike prevail.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$157,521结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the number of 2026 Fed rate hikes, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July after 3.5% in June amid lingering energy-price pressures. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% in its July 29 decision on a 9-3 vote, reflecting internal divisions that have shifted market-implied odds toward one or fewer 25-basis-point hikes for the full year. Recent cooler CPI prints have tempered September hike probabilities, while the June dot plot showed a median projection for modest tightening by year-end. Upcoming September and October meetings, alongside fresh inflation and labor data, will likely determine whether the 44.5% probability of zero hikes or the 34.5% odds of one hike prevail.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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