**Elevated inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers behind the 58.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next Fed move.** Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions and strong demand in sectors like AI-related capital spending, have kept core PCE readings above the 2% target. The July FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, and recent Jackson Hole remarks reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability. Traders are now assigning roughly even-to-favorable odds for a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflecting real-capital consensus on the inflation trajectory versus a more patient baseline among some economists. The next data releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息
59% 概率
最新
最新
2028-12-31
加息
59% 概率
最新
最新
2028-12-31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers behind the 58.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next Fed move.** Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions and strong demand in sectors like AI-related capital spending, have kept core PCE readings above the 2% target. The July FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, and recent Jackson Hole remarks reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability. Traders are now assigning roughly even-to-favorable odds for a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflecting real-capital consensus on the inflation trajectory versus a more patient baseline among some economists. The next data releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
交易量
$3,932结束日期
2028-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers behind the 58.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next Fed move.** Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions and strong demand in sectors like AI-related capital spending, have kept core PCE readings above the 2% target. The July FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, and recent Jackson Hole remarks reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability. Traders are now assigning roughly even-to-favorable odds for a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflecting real-capital consensus on the inflation trajectory versus a more patient baseline among some economists. The next data releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$3,932结束日期
2028-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET**Elevated inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh are the main drivers behind the 58.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike as the next Fed move.** Persistent price pressures, including supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions and strong demand in sectors like AI-related capital spending, have kept core PCE readings above the 2% target. The July FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring an immediate increase, and recent Jackson Hole remarks reinforced the Committee's commitment to price stability. Traders are now assigning roughly even-to-favorable odds for a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, reflecting real-capital consensus on the inflation trajectory versus a more patient baseline among some economists. The next data releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题