The Federal Reserve's October 28, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75-4% amid elevated inflation and strong GDP growth has anchored trader expectations for further tightening before year-end. Two FOMC members dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point hike, while the September Summary of Economic Projections showed a 4.1% median endpoint for both 2026 and 2027. Market-implied odds reflect this path, with December 8-9 pricing in a high probability of another quarter-point increase as core PCE remains above target. Strong labor market data and resilient domestic spending reinforce the hawkish tilt, limiting scope for cuts and supporting consensus around a 4.25% upper bound as the most likely level reached by early 2027.