Recent hotter-than-expected October CPI data, with headline inflation rising 0.4% month-over-month and core at 0.3%, has driven a sharp hawkish shift in market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy. The federal funds target range stands at 3.75%-4.00% following the October 28 hold, after the September 25-basis-point increase. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and others have signaled support for at least a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting, with some pricing now reflecting a possible 50-basis-point move amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Strong economic growth and a stable labor market have reinforced expectations of further tightening, pushing futures-implied paths toward additional rate increases into 2027 rather than near-term easing. The December decision and updated economic projections represent the key near-term catalyst.