Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 82%
Other 17.7%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
$130,337 交易量
$130,337 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 82%
Other 17.7%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
$130,337 交易量
$130,337 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$32,756 交易量
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$6,978 交易量
2%
Other
$38,436 交易量
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$130,337结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$130,337结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year rise—the highest in three years, fueled by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid Middle East tensions—has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting. This outcome, consistent with the pause that began in January, has driven the 79% market-implied probability of Pause–Pause–Pause across the April-July sequence by underscoring sticky inflation and a hawkish policy tilt. The Fed’s updated dot plot, with a median end-2026 projection of 3.8%, further signals limited room for cuts, while upcoming July 28-29 deliberations and June CPI data will test whether the energy-driven inflation shock eases enough to shift expectations. These factors collectively embed trader consensus for continued restraint over near-term easing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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