Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed steady rates at 3.50%-3.75% from the April 28-29 decision amid elevated inflation pressures. The April Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—bolstered by energy spikes and sticky services costs, prompting major firms like Bank of America and J.P. Morgan to forecast holds through year-end or potential hikes. Robust labor data further supports this skin-in-the-game consensus. Challenges could arise from cooler May CPI on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially unlocking cut odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 5.1%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$49,000 交易量
$49,000 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Other 5.1%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.6%
$49,000 交易量
$49,000 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 交易量
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 交易量
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 交易量
2%
Other
$1,595 交易量
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed steady rates at 3.50%-3.75% from the April 28-29 decision amid elevated inflation pressures. The April Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—bolstered by energy spikes and sticky services costs, prompting major firms like Bank of America and J.P. Morgan to forecast holds through year-end or potential hikes. Robust labor data further supports this skin-in-the-game consensus. Challenges could arise from cooler May CPI on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially unlocking cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$49,000结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed steady rates at 3.50%-3.75% from the April 28-29 decision amid elevated inflation pressures. The April Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—bolstered by energy spikes and sticky services costs, prompting major firms like Bank of America and J.P. Morgan to forecast holds through year-end or potential hikes. Robust labor data further supports this skin-in-the-game consensus. Challenges could arise from cooler May CPI on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially unlocking cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$49,000结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed steady rates at 3.50%-3.75% from the April 28-29 decision amid elevated inflation pressures. The April Consumer Price Index surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the hottest since May 2023—bolstered by energy spikes and sticky services costs, prompting major firms like Bank of America and J.P. Morgan to forecast holds through year-end or potential hikes. Robust labor data further supports this skin-in-the-game consensus. Challenges could arise from cooler May CPI on June 10 or softening nonfarm payrolls ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially unlocking cut odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题